IN A CLASS OF HER OWN

Chrissie Wellington 1-1

Last year, Wellington was a stealth rookie, completely off the radar, the darkest of dark horses, the biggest smoky of all time, to use coach Brett Sutton’s Aussie lexicon. Even if she had been combined, as in horse racing, with the field, her odds were no better than 35-1. A year later, the biggest upset in Ironman history would be if she got beat. How did this cataclysm to the established Ironman order occur?

Obviously, Coach Brett Sutton and his old school training ways that took more from his background in greyhound and horse racing than from power meters and heart rate monitors, had a lot to do with it. In case anyone thought it was a singular miracle because Wellington was simply a genetic freak, first look at her Team TBB teammates in 2008. Belinda Granger won three Ironman races at age 37. Duathlon champion Erika Csomor got a swim to back up her phenomenal bike and run and won Ironman Malaysia and Ironman Arizona. Stephen Bayliss took breakthrough wins at Ironman South Africa and Ironman UK. Hilary Biscay won her first Ironman after five runner-up finishes.

Now look what Wellington did in her sophomore year. A swift 9:03:55 win at Australia, outdueling Kate Major. A big win at Frankfurt in under 9 hours. A smashing win at rugged, hilly Alpe d’Huez, where she finished a minute behind the first man. A duel with Yvonne Van Vlerken after the Dutch star broke Paula Newby-Fraser’s Ironman distance record with an 8:45 at Quelle Challenge Roth. At the ITU long distance Worlds in Van Vlerken’s home country Holland, Wellington smashed the Dutch upstart by 25 minutes. To top it off, Wellington won Timberman 70.3 by a country mile and finished just 20 minutes back of the top man.

The scary thought is that Wellington, with her debut sub-3 hour Kona marathon, is still improving. Could she run faster this year? “Definitely,” she said. “Absolutely.”

KONA PROVEN – FAVORITES FOR THE STAGE

Kate Major 4½ -1

After her strong duel with Wellington at Ironman Australia, Major was afflicted with a foot injury that cost her six weeks without running. But now Major is fit and
running and biking better than ever. Scary thought for everyone except Wellington – Major’s 3:02:19 marathon in 2005 puts her just a few steps behind Wellington’s fleet feet. Major is relaxed about all her decent pre-Kona outings, but is clutch on the Queen K. She started her pro run at Kona with a 9th in 2003, took thirds in 2004 and 2005, a 6th in 2006 and another third in 2007 put herself halfway to Fernanda Keller’s record half dozen third-place finishes at Kona.

Major is my favorite to win the simply human women’s category at Kona.

Jo Lawn 6-1

The superbly freckled Kiwi with the fantastically sculpted hip-hop hair has been underrated for years. But with her clutch 4th last year – outdueling Ironman winners Rebecca Preston and Rebekah Keat while fight a gastro attack the last few miles – was clutch. It put her record six wins at Ironman New Zealand in proper context – Lawn is an amazing competitor, still improving, who rises to the occasion.

Rebecca Preston 8-1

The diminutive Aussie proved how tough she is when she won Ironman Austria and Ironman Switzerland in a two-week period in 2006. Last year’s 5th place finish was another sign that the smallest of Brett Sutton’s crew is a big time threat.

Nina Kraft 10-1

Four years after Kraft disgraced herself by testing positive for EPO after crossing the line an embarrassing 20 minutes ahead of Natascha Badmann. The encouraging note was that she quickly admitted her trespass and quietly served
a two-year Ironman ban. Even better, Kraft came back and turned in some first rate performances winning Ironman Brazil and Ironman Florida. Last year, she didn’t fight the ruling when she lost her Kona slot at Ironman Brazil for arriving at the allocation meeting too late.

Perhaps it is better that fate delayed her return to Kona. The sting of her trespass has lessened, ion many ways she has paid her penance. Now, at age 39, she can see how well she will do with her original equipment. .

Dede Griesbauer 14-1

New Englander, pal of Karen Smyers, broke through with a 7th place finish ahead of certified stars Leanda cave, Belinda Granger and Natascha Badmann.
If she can improve her 3:22 Kona marathon time to 3:15 or less, she might make the top 5.

Gina Kehr 15-1

Gutsy Gina Kehr overcame bike crash injuries and came back from the birth of her child after her breakthrough 4th place finish in 2006. Kehr is at her best on Ironman’s biggest day.

Desiree Ficker 17-1

Breakthrough runner-up finish to Michellie Jones at 2006 Ironman Hawaii may be the apogee of her career. Struggled the following year except for a 2:41 marathon in Austin. Obviously she still has the genetics and the will to repeat her feat. But will she? .

HAVE THE FIREPOWER – IN TWO OF THREE DISCIPLINES

Erika Csomor 5½-1

This multiple duathlon world champion and four-time Powerman Zofingen duathlon titlist is the women’s version of the late duathlon king Benny Vansteelant. In fact, the Hungarian often trained with Vansteelant in the hills of Belgium and Switzerland before his untimely death in a bike-car collision last year. Still, Csomor wasn’t satisfied with her run-bike-run kingdom. So she signed on with coach Brett Sutton late last year to whip her swim into shape and hone her already formidable bike and run skills. The immediate answer was a 10th place Kona finish with a once-tolerable 1:03 swim. Fast improving, Csomor whipped a top field this March at California 70.3, then nailed a win at ironman Arizona in a near course record 9:14:49, then was edged by a1:17 margin to Yvonne Van Vlerken’s Ironman-distance world best of 8:45 at Quelle Challenge Roth, then edged again by Van Vlerken at Ironman Austria 70.3. Csomor’s 3:07 run at Arizona topped runner-up Michellie Jones by 12 minutes, and her 2:55 marathon at Roth was within a minute of Van Vlerken’s mark. Still, Csomor’s 59-minute wetsuit swim at Arizona gave up 8 minutes to Jones and her 53-minute wetsuit swim in Roth’s canals speedway gave up 5 minutes to a large first pack. At Kona, the no wetsuit standard will work weigh against Csomor, who will likely spend the day chasing her Team TBB teammates. In the end, Csomor has the goods to make the podium.

Charlotte Paul 8-1

Just 56 seconds from breaking 9 hours at Busselton, Paul’s all-around good 54 swim, 5:01 bike and 3:05 run might translate to a top 5 at Kona. Plus she is bulldog determined to crack the 9-hour mark two months later at Western Australia.

Sandra Wallenhorst 11-1

This new Ironman sensation cannot be ignored after her 8:47 at Ironman Austria, which included a 4:50 bike (topped by runner-up Bella Comerford’s 4:48) and finished by an even more impressive 2:54 run. Why can’t she beat Wellington? Needs a wetsuit swim to stay in sight of Chrissie. Number two, she lost head to head matchups to Van Vlerken, who lost by a crushing 25 minutes to Wellington at ITU long course world’s at Almere.

Yvonne Van Vlerken 14-1

During a feeding frenzy on the women’s Ironman distance world best this summer in Europe, she smashed Paula Newby-Fraser’s 12-year-old record by five minutes on the very same Roth course. On that day, her 53 swim, 4:54 bike and 2:54 run added up to a sizzling 8:45:48 – the fastest Ironman distance time ever. But when she ran into the Wellington Express on her home course at Almere for the ITU long course world championship at 2/3 Ironman distance, Van Vlerken was handed a big dose of humble pie – a 24-minute thrashing. Can go fast, but in the past was whipped by Belinda Granger in the heat at Malaysia. Might have a chance at Kona if global cooling hits Hawaii and wetsuits are legal.

BIKE HAPPY

Leanda Cave 7-1

The 2002 ITU short course world champion loved the heat in Cancun and has thrived at rugged test of Escape From Alcatraz. Even better, Cave had the audacity to say “I will win this race one day after her 8th place debut at Kona last year. Led the bike until the Wellington Express roared by at Mile 80. Should be in talented front pack all the way to T2 again this year.

Belinda Granger 7½-1

If the wind roars and the Queen K is an oven, this 37-year-old ubercyclist might just contend for a win. If things are just average, Granger and her three 2008 wins at Malaysia, China and Canada won’t make dent in the top five.

Tyler Stewart 18-1

After setting the world best Ironman distance bike record at Ironman Florida in 2007, Stewart has been hungry for bigger things. A 4th at St. Croix and a second to Sam McGlone are promising, but she still runs too slow. 70.3
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GREAT RUNS – WEAK IN HAWAII SO FAR

Fiona Docherty 17-1
Nicole Leder 21-1

COMING ON STRONG THIS YEAR

Heather Gollnick 12-1

Five Ironman wins and an ever improving run.

Bella Comerford 13-1

After full Ironman wins at South Africa and the UK, now has seven Ironman titles.
This hard-working Scotswoman has been working had to finally have a good race in Kona – before marrying beau and fellow Team TBB member Stephen Bayliss.

GOOD IN OTHER PLACES - LIKE LANZAROTE

Virginia Beratasegui 23-1

LONGEST SHOTS

Hilary Biscay 30-1
Fernanda Keller 42-1

WILL BE SORELY MISSED

The great Michellie Jones, 2005 runner-up and 2006 champion, is out with a late injury, as is last year’s runner-up sensation Samantha McGlone with another injury that would not heal. Both will be missed by the lead bike pack trying to hang on and keep Wellington in touch. McGlone, who saw her third best ever 3 hour flat run lose a few seconds, was preparing to run 2:55 in Kona. So perhaps better that this energy and subsequent rest allows the fiery Canadian to summon up a deeper pool of energy for the quest in 2009. Lisa Bentley, while wrestling with injuries, made avow she would stay away from Kona if she could not run 3:05 in Canada. She could not, but looks strong in the 70.3 arena.

MIRACLE WORKER

After two complex operations to fix the damage after her brutal bike crash last year at Kona, six-time champion Natascha Badmann now sets off airport metal detectors with all the titanium hardware used to put her shoulder and arms back together. In addition, despite fervent rehab, the Swiss Miss was only able to start freestyle swimming six weeks ago and her longest swim has been 30 minutes. Even worse, Badmann’s fragile shoulders did not allow her to bike at full speed until a month ago. Just a few weeks ago was she able to wrap herself back into her radically aero Cheetah bike. Still, says coach and life [partner Toni Hasler, “Natascha is fast but not strong on the run and fast on the bike. We just don ‘t know for how long.”
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