Ironman was the engine. It was the mother ship, fueling the growth of triathlon though growing its own brand, albeit at a glacial pace compared to today. A decade after that first Ironman in which I participated there were no more than 7 Ironman races worldwide.

Triathlon did well in the 80s, less well in the 90s. USA Triathlon's annual membership fell to about 15,000 by the mid-90s and entire states like Michigan and Minnesota – lots of multisporters in those states – were almost bereft of triathlons.

What caused that downturn? Hard to say for sure. Partly demographics. High school running – the primary sport funneling people into triathlon – was at a high ebb in the 1960s and 1970s, but dipped in the 1980s so there was less feeder-fuel to support triathlon in the 90s. Also, the first generation of triathletes had aged by the 90s; and there was a general economic downturn in the early 1990s.

What brought triathlon back at the end of the 1990s? Also hard to say. Fans of Olympic triathlon cite this, but I suspect a large boost was the upsurge in U.S.-based Ironman races founded and built by then-Ironman-licensee Graham Fraser. Lake Placid, Couer d'Alene, Florida were all his races. Graham produced a race in Provo, Utah, ill-fated because of a death during the swim. The event was not renewed after that. What's notable about that race is that a triathlon ecosystem emerged from it, short-lived though Ironman Utah was. Clubs, races and stores rose up in Utah contemporaneously and it's hard to imagine that this was coincidental. Lake Placid did the same for the growth of triathlon in metro-New York City. In those days Ironman created its own weather.

Primary Succession, according to plant and animal ecologists, is the first growth in a barren land before it becomes an ecosystem. Ironman has in many cases been a pioneer species – the first plant in a barren landscape. A “climax community” is at the other end of a series of ecological stages. This is where we are now, in North America. This is where triathlon has been for at least 3 or 4 years already.

Does an Ironman race plopped into a climax community mean the same to a local triathlon ecosystem as it does when it's pioneering barren ground? Is Ironman the same force for good today, in a built-out triathlon community, as it was 15 and 20 years ago? I surveyed several stakeholder cohorts – clubs, coaches, race organizers and consumers – asking questions designed to help me drill down on this question. In all, about 400 clubs, coaches and RDs responded to my surveys. I'll be pursuing the answer to this question over the next several days in a number of articles.

The survey results were interesting and in some cases surprising. Respondents' answers in the aggregate are expert testimony when I ask questions of fact, as in, are your revenues, membership, customers up or down? When I ask opinions, their answers are not fact-based. But when a certain cohort tends to hold the same opinion on a question, it is a fact that they hold this opinion, even if the opinion is false. The fact that a lot of people think global warming is not taking place, or that childhood immunization causes autism, is notable, relevant, newsworthy, and demands a response even if the underlying opinion is baseless.