(www.slowtwitch.com) by Dan Empfield, 10-5-01

Saturday's race is the most anticipated in years because of its strength of field and its unpredictability. There are several who could win in both the men's and women's races. Today we'll look at the men's race.

There are some wide and obvious discrepancies between the picks of the three Slowtwitch staffers on the Big Island. Amy White picks Luc Van Lierde to win, and Monty and I don't pick him at all. We all agree that Luc will either be in the top three or he'll not finish at all. Monty and I think Amy's pick is as logical as our own––almost.

We all feel good about Tim DeBoom's chances. Monty and I think this is his year. Lothar Leder would be higher, but we all agree that he'll be a bit tired after this, his fourth Ironman race of the year. Monty's picks heavily value those who've proven themselves here before, hence his choice of The Man in the top ten. He also likes runners, however, and his surprise pick is Jan Van Rooyen for fourth.

Amy thinks Steve Larsen is more of the real deal than Monty and I do. She thinks he's done enough this year to warrant a top five finish and has faith in his capacity to suffer and to manage the heat. Monty and I have a question about his ability to handle the conditions here, and the unique nutritional and thermoregulatory problems that acccompany it.

Amy White and I have faith in American Ryan Bolton for his rookie year at Kona. Monty says, however, that "it's going to be a biker-runner race. You've either got to be in the group––which will be very large––or riding toward it. Bolton may get into the top 20, but he'll have to run into it. Those in the top 15 will all have to come from a pack that might number 20 or 25 riders deep into the ride."

I agree with Monty that the pack will be large—in fact, I think it will be twice as large as he thinks it'll be. I think that pack will be large enough for Bolton to hang onto, and when and if it splits––say halfway into the ride––Bolton will have enough company to keep him moving until the run. In my mind's eye I can see both him and Hungary's Peter Kropko together the entire race, as the rookie and veteran have similar strengths. That is why Amy and I both pick them to finish in the top 15, and close to each other.

We all think Peter Reid will be near the front, but we all also wonder how much IM Canada––held just several weeks ago––has taken out of his legs.

Monty thinks Stadler will stay in the top three; I think his race last year was good rookie fortune, and he'll fall a few places in a sophomore slump. I'm betting Zäck has one more podum finish in him.

Monty thinks Steve Larsen will get the final money spot, and will have a respectable rookie performance. Amy says Larsen will "come swinging a huge club, and the group will have to take him seriously as he rides through them and off the front. The group will have to respond."

Larsen will "do to the race," says Monty, "what Jürgen used to do to it. Even though Jürgen often blew in the run, he caused other people to blow as well."

Amy predicts Larsen will get off the bike with a 7- to 10-minute lead, hence her belief that he'll finish fifth. I am more suspect of Larsen at this race. If it was 20 degrees cooler I'd pick him higher. While Larsen may find his way to the lead, I predict that he'll stop putting any time on Stadler, Zäck and DeBoom after the 80-mile mark of the bike. If the Germans can stay ahead of or even with Larsen by the 70-mile mark, they'll enter the run with him.

Monty picks Dave in the money, and Amy picks him 13th. I believe he'll get into the top 25, but not into the top 15. I think he'll run into a good place, but I expect him to come off the bike a half-hour down on the leaders, and that's a lot of ground to give up.

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