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PREDICTIONS––WOMEN'S RACE
(www.slowtwitch.com) by Dan Empfield, 10-5-01
It's boring to pick the favorite for the win. I don't know anybody who isn't predicting either last year's winner Natascha Badmann or previous Kona winner Lori Bowden. So let me be the first, by selecting Joanna Zeiger. I'm not going out on too much of a limb, because Zeiger is obviously a legitimate contender. She is unquestionably the best all-around female triathlete in the world right now.
Zeiger's going to have to go a ways to win, because Badmann and Bowden each have the talent, the knowledge, the experience, and the confidence to win as well. Also, Paula Newby-Fraser is resurgent this year. She looked to me like the Newby of old––or at least close to it––at IM California in May. What I don't know is how things have gone for Newby since May. She looked to me, though, like she'd retrieved something she'd lost through the incredible––and incredibly damaging––training she was doing in the mid '90s, when she was doing workouts calculated to dip her into the 8:40s.
What makes this race interesting is that there are five former winners in the field, and the one I'm picking isn't one of them. Therefore, you'd have to say that there are six who are capable of the win, and that doesn't include Beth Zinkand and Lisa Bentley, who are both ranked in the top three or four in the accurate Profile Design Multisport ranking system. In other words, this race, like the men's, is a pick-em.
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MARK MONTGOMERY'S PICKS |
AMY WHITE'S PICKS |
DAN EMPFIELD'S PICKS |
| 1. |
Lori Bowden |
Natascha Badmann |
Joanna Zeiger |
| 2. |
Natascha Badmann |
Lori Bowden |
Lori Bowden |
| 3. |
Joanna Zeiger |
Joanna Zeiger |
Natascha Badmann |
| 4. |
Paula Newby-Fraser |
Fernanda Keller |
Paula Newby-Fraser |
| 5. |
Fernanda Keller |
Beth Zinkand |
Beth Zinkand |
| 6. |
Gina Kehr |
Lena Wahlqvist |
Karen Smyers |
| 7. |
Karen Smyers |
Heather Fuhr |
Fernanda Keller |
| 8. |
Beth Zinkand |
Karen Smyers |
Lisbeth Kristensen |
| 9. |
Heather Fuhr |
Paula Newby-Fraser |
Heather Fuhr |
| 10. |
Wendy Ingraham |
Lisbeth Kristensen |
Lisa Bentley |
The average age of the Monty's picks is 36. The only athlete on anybody's list under 30 is Denmark's Lisbeth Kristensen, who is 29. Where is the youth movement? Young athletes are here; they just haven't proven themselves yet. The most notable young athletes are Kristensen, who has won both of the Ironman-distance races she's done so far in her career, Australia's 25-year-old Belinda Cheney and neo-pro Joanna Lawn from New Zealand, who is 27.
Monty's pick of Gina Kehr may prove to be an inspired one. She was in the top ten last year and has had a fabulous short course season to date. Another short courser to watch in the Ironman is Belgium's Kathleen Smet, who debuted at IM racing in South Africa this year and is a former European triathlon champion.
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