DAN: The influx of worthy contestants from short course, duathlon and the ranks of professional bike racing make this an intriguing Kona, both in the men's and women's races. This is a continuation of a trend first evident last year. Steve Larsen isn't returning to Kona due to injury, but a Larsen-like influence on the bike segment is anticipated this year in both the men's and women's races.

It's hard to overstate how much more of a cyclist Switzerland's Karen Thurig is compared to the rest of the field. Lance Armstrong competing here would be the analog in the men's race. How fast is she? Two weeks ago she earned the bronze medal at the world time trial championship in cycling. In Ironman France she biked 5:14. Second place in that race was Ironvet--and no slouch at cycling--Gina Kehr, who rode 5:54. Men's third place finisher Uwe Widmann from Germany rode 5:13. Thurig also had the fastest women's run of the day in France, by nine minutes. But she swims like a rock, and probably won't be out of the water inside of 1:05. Even so, she still might be the first woman off the bike, as Bowden and Badmann probably won't exit the water more than seven minutes ahead of her.

Thurig has two extremely hard races in her legs this year, one of which took place only a month ago. But she won both of those--IM France and Zofingen--in dominating fashion, and that hints at an uncommon durability. She also has that time trial just in arrears of this race. One too many races? She'll either win Kona blow spectacularly in the effort.

In the men's race it's Chann McRae who'll throw in a world class bike ride, but unlike Thurig he hasn't demonstrated what he can do in an Ironman bike ride. Don't think he's not a novelty entry, though. Udo Bolts ran seven times prior to Kona. McRae has been training for this race since June. And remember that McRae came to cycling from triathlon. He can swim, and expects to exit the water in around 56 minutes. This will place him within range of the lead (when was the last time an age grouper came off the bike in the lead in this race?). Perhaps Zack, or Leder, or Hellriegel might seek to take advantage of a bullet shot through the peleton, which might occur as early as mile-40. This is the "Larsen scenario" from last year, and in '01 the former Motorola rider went through the pack so hard that no one could keep up. This year, when McRae elbows his way to the front he will have no major impact on the race. The others--remembering the pain in their legs from last year's effort to hang onto Larsen--won't even try to stay with McRae.

Chris McCormack is the biggest wild card in the men's race. He's the most physically talented man in the field. He rides and runs faster than any other entrant. He's big, as Ironman winners tend to be. He's an Ironman winner, having bested a world class field in Australia. But Oz isn't Kona, and Mark Allen was held in similar esteem for each of four failed years prior to his first win in Kona. The difference between Mark and Chris, however, is that the former had Dave to contend with. Absent Dave, Mark would've won two or three more Konas. There is no Dave in the race--no one to intimidate Macca--and so I expect Chris to follow Luc's example and win his Kona debut.

Leder--who has Macca-like talent--would win this race if he didn't spill his Kona all over the courses of Ironman races run earlier in the year. Peter Reid will win this race againbefore it's all over, but I need to be convinced that he's shaken off his doldrems. I hope he convinces me on Saturday, and proves me wrong. Look for a strong rookie performance by Swede Jonas Colting. He's the best athlete you've never heard of. Look for Cameron Widoff to be mixing it up with the leaders all day long. He's not in my top ten because I don't know where to put him. He could be as high as third or as low as fifteenth. Surprise of the day: Stefan Riesen. Monster run off big-time bike ride at IM France netted him second place by a minute in the year's hardest Ironman. He needs to swim 56 minutes, though, and he's more likely to swim an hour.

In a year for debut winners I'll pick Thurig to win the women's race as a Kona virgin. Absent Thurig in the race I'd pick Badmann to win, but I don't think the Swiss Ironstar will enjoy getting passed by her countrywoman. That will push Natascha down to third, behind German Katja Schumacher, who's having a career season. Bowden, with the fastest run of the day, will climb into fourth, but will be too far behind off the bike to make it all the way up. This, unless the others try to stay with Thurig as she chugs by. If they do they'll blow themselves up, and Bowden or Zeiger might run all the way to first or second.

Reid, Zack and Sandvang didn't make my list, only because they've had shaky seasons recently. But all three have podium-worthy talent, and if Zack doesn't have the run speed capable of the overall win, the other two do. Just depends on if it's their day. Same with Smyers in the women's field. All four are sentimental favorites for me (and the editor echoes my sentiments).

MEN'S RACE

1. Chris McCormack
2. Cameron Brown
3. Tim DeBoom
4. Thomas Hellriegel
5. Spencer Smith
6. Lothar Leder
7. Normann Stadler
8. Stefan Riesen
9. Jonas Colting
10. Andreas Niedrig

WOMEN'S RACE

1. Karen Thurig
2. Katja Schumacher
3. Natascha Badmann
4. Lori Bowden
5. Joanna Zeiger
6. Nina Kraft
7. Paula Newby-Fraser
8. Jill Savege
9. Lisa Bentley
10. Heather Fuhr

AMY: Dan, you ignorant slut! Funny thing about making picks. Most of the things I'd find myself saying, my boss has already said. Because he's my boss, he gets to go first. Plus it was Boss' Day this week. He's managed to extend it out and still poach many of the ideas we've both been rolling around our dining room table this week.

I do have a slight edge in one thing, in that I got to visit the pro news conference yesterday and hear some of their thoughts about the day. If you were to distill it, it would be this: Picks are pointless because anything can happen on any given day, most especially here. As Cam Widoff said in what was far and away the best comment of the whole day, "This race knows no names."

Today, looking out the window of our condo, it's a warm and humid morning. Tomorrow it could rain, we could have cloud cover to help speed up the run times, or we could have horrible wind and heat like last year. As they say in baseball, "That's why they play the game." As a fan of the San Francisco Giants—in the World Series this weekend on the wild card, facing another wild card team—I really do hold this view as a truth in the world. Having said ALL of that, though, there are a few things I heard on Thursday that made me prick up my ears.

Tim DeBoom is relaxed and seems comfortable with his place as defending champ. It doesn't seem to be a heavy mantle for him: "Everything after winning will be icing on the cake," he said. I predict he'll have a good day and not get caught up in anybody else's game, which is crucial for success here. He has no other Ironman races in his legs this year, another benefit.

Paula Newby-Fraser says she's racing for the sheer joy of it. "This is sort of an anniversary race," she said. "Paul, my Paul, turned 40 and has come back to race." A lot of other friends have signed on to race this year, including Triathlete magazine publisher John Duke. "There wasn't any way I was going to get left out of the training mania in San Diego," she said. "This is definitely a reunion race for me. My main goal out there is to beat Paul, obviously." Since we believe Huddle has a good shot at winning his age group, I look for Paula to place well, too.

Cameron Brown of New Zealand, when asked about major threats, said he wouldn't discount Chann McRae, and neither will I. Chris McCormack was like the elephant in the living room—he wasn't at the conference, but he was on people's minds even if they weren't talking much about him to the press. "He's getting tons of hype and he'll live up to it," DeBoom said. "He can change the race."

Jurgen Zack, meanwhile, said he knew tons of new Europeans who could have an impact, but he didn't want to tell. We've already told you about the ones we think could have a good day, and I'd add a couple to my boss' list: Mika Luoto of Finland and his training partner Tom Soderdahl, who's racing as an amateur, and the winner of Ironman France, Francois Chabaud. We both believe that the difficulty of Ironman France this year, both in its course profile and its weather (hot), makes it, along with Lanzarote, a good indicator of Kona ability. I also never count out Olivier Bernhard because when he has a good day on the bike and run, he's simply one of the world's best. If he is close after the bike and gets his running legs under him, look out. He's already won Powerman Zofingen and Ironman Switzerland this year.

Thomas Hellriegel had a relaxed air about him, also evidenced by his walk in the Ironman Parade on Wednesday night. He said he was happy with his third place last year, and glad that he held back a bit on the bike so he could have a good, strong run. That strategy paid off for him last year, and you can look for him to have another smart race this year, putting into practice all of the lessons he's learned on the Queen K over the years.

And what about Canada's Peter Reid? Despite Reid's struggles of the last year, DeBoom said he wouldn't see his former training partner as a dark horse at all: "He wouldn't be here if he wasn't fit. I give him all the respect in the world." And what about Jurgen?

Natascha Badmann and Karin Thurig weren't at the news conference, but the women who were there would tell you that they will be watching for them all day. Newby-Fraser said she doesn't believe Thurig can win, given that she's not yet run a marathon in this kind of heat and humidity. To me, Badmann's physiology seems a perfect match for these conditions, and I will pick her to win again, despite all the pressure from this new and very exciting group of women knocking at the door, including Thurig and Germany's Nina Kraft and Katja Schumacher.

As my publisher mentioned above, it's clear that this is a wide-open year and there are many, many talented guys and gals in the field. Narrowing the list to ten is an act of almost singular foolishness, and yet we do it every year anyway, because it forces us to look back on a whole lot of great accomplishment and look forward to a whole lot of wonderful surprises.

MEN'S RACE

1. Chris McCormack
2. Cameron Brown
3. Tim DeBoom
4. Thomas Hellriegel
5. Lothar Leder
6. Spencer Smith
7. Normann Stadler
8. Cameron Widoff
9. Olivier Bernhard
10. Mika Luoto

WOMEN'S RACE

1. Natascha Badmann
2. Katja Schumacher
3. Karen Thurig
4. Lori Bowden
5. Nina Kraft
6. Heather Fuhr
7. Paula Newby-Fraser
8. Lisa Bentley
9. Joanna Zeiger
10. Karen Smyers

Click here for a look at what transpired at all the long distance races during the past 12 months.

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