The fortunes of four companies, recounted over the past ten years, provide a background for understanding today's aerobar market.

Exactly ten Kona races ago, in 1997, Syntace not only topped the field (by a margin of 150 aerobars), but was poised to outpoll in subsequent years the other manufacturers by yet wider margins.

Indeed, between 1997 and 1999 Syntace's numbers grew from 620 aerobars in Kona to 750, while second-place Profile Design's aerobar count shrunk from 490 units to 340. During this same two year period aerobar founder Scott's units fell from 240 to 100.

The trend was stark and unequivocal. But an interesting phenomenon befalls a small niche single-owner fabricator, and I've been both spectator and example of this. You might call it "small manufacturer's fatigue." Eight years after I started my own company, Quintana Roo, I sold it (to Saucony, and since sold to American Bicycle Group). You get tired of hoisting the company, and its monthly bills, and the fortunes of its employees, on your own shoulders. Or your original designs give way to your newer ideas, but the market fails to love them with the affectionate you do. Or you simply lose interest. Or you really do want to spend more time with your family. And all these are the things that happen to relatively successful niche businesses.

I think small manufacturer's fatigue befell three of the four companies upon which we'll focus, and specifically Syntace and Profile Design. Profile's founder, Bill Powers, sold his company. Syntace's founder, Jo Kleiber, did not. Kleiber's motivation and fertile designer's brain turned toward the offroad bike market, and he ceased spending much if any time innovating for triathletes. In short, he appears to have gotten bored with triathlon.

	AEROBARS IN THE 2006 IRONMAN
	1	PROFILE DESIGN	678	40%
	2	SYNTACE	372	22%
	3	VISION TECH	275	16%
	4	OVAL	77	5%
	5	HED	66	4%
	6	EASTON	62	4%
	7	TOTAL OTHER	136	8%
	8	NO AEROBARS	13	1%

Following the 1999 season, just at the time it seemed Profile Design was in a deep hole, its transition to new management was complete and a new design and engineering team was in place. The duo of Chris Travers and Mark Vandermolen -- a tandem still running Profile's design and marketing -- turned the corner and by 2001 Syntace's lead over Profile in Kona had shrunk from over 400 units to about 160. By 2003 the lead was less than 50 units, and by 2005 Profile was in first position among Kona's bikes by about 75 bikes. This past year Profile outranked Syntace by about 300 bikes. (A chronicle of the aerobar history in Kona covers this.)

Concurrently, Scott's aerobar totals continued to decrease, but this had nothing to do with the small manufacturer's syndrome described above. Rather, Scott decided to get out of bike-specific sales, at least in North America. The company much better known for Winter and motor sports has since rescuscitated its North American bike business after retrenching in Europe. Former Cannondale chief Scott Montgomery is often seen as the driving force behind's Scott's remarkable North American rebound.

But the grand reopening of Scott's American bicycle division did not include a return to aerobar manufacture, and as such its numbers continue to dwindle.

The fourth of the aerobar niche players on which we're focusing is Visiontech. Again, niche manufacturer fatigue seems to have played a part. Founder and original owner Peter Fraiman could not gain traction with his original one-piece designs, and in 2003 sold to FSA. As was the case with Profile Design, immediately the new design team tasked with Visiontech's market relevance started to return dividends. In the 6 or 7 years prior to 2003 Vision barely cracked 30 aerobars in Kona, but in 2005 had 150, and in 2006 had 275. It is likely that by 2007 Vision will pass Syntace as the second most popular bar among Kona competitors.

Today Profile Design and Visiontech own the momentum, but are by no means the only relevant players. Oval, Easton, Hed, Zipp and Blackwell as a group represent a total equal to or ahead of Visiontech, and while it's not clear which company out of that bloc will pull away from the others, they represent the up-and-comers. Indeed, Hed and Oval totaled 45 bars in Kona in 2003, and they had 143 bars in the 2006 Ironman. Easton, Zipp and Blackwell were not even making bars in 2003.

These five companies also comprise much of the higher-end of the category. Consider three of them: Oval, Easton and Hed. We find that 90 percent of their aerobars are carbon, and 86 percent are one-piece. Compare that to the three leaders. Syntace has no carbon bars, while fewer than two-thirds of the Profile and Vision users are riding carbon.