This edition of the Survey was different in several respects from any Survey at Kona we've taken in the 15 years since we started.
Immediately apparent were all the aero helmets, and this took just about everybody I talked to by surprise. Many of these helmets are not CPSC approved but, instead, are approved only according to the European "CE" standard. USA Triathlon was set to approve only helmets bearing the U.S.-based CPSC sticker, and this would've caused 1,100 non-U.S. athletes to face arrival in Kona with non-conforming helmets, including many of these aero helmets. A deal between WTC and USAT was eventually worked out, averting a disaster.
Following this theme of aerodynamics, tri bikes appeared to represent most all the bikes purchased between last year's Kona and this year's. Few people are buying road bikes -- like Trek OCLVs, long a standard in Kona -- for their Hawaiian Ironman race. Accordingly, companies like Cervelo, QR, Scott, Guru, Orbea, all saw increases, but Trek -- whose Equinox TTX did not make it to market this past season -- saw a 25% decline in the race.
Most of these new tri bikes were carbon. The only substantial bike company not having a carbon tri bike but still advancing in numbers was Specialized.
All this caused the onlooker to note how few, relative to former years, were the bikes of the flagship brands. Consider 1995, when Cannondale outdistanced Trek 150 to 141 for first and second in the Survey. The next year C'dale kept their same bike total, but Trek gained 10 to claim the number-1 spot by one bike. In 1999 it was Cannondale with 160 bikes to Trek's 130. These two brands totaled between 280 and 300 bikes up through 2002.
This year, Trek and Cannondale totaled 203 bikes. This is out of about 1750, roughly the total of those entering the transition area. In the years when these brands combined for 50% more units than they now have, there were closer to 1450 bike in the race. The total penetration of these brands in the race has therefore fallen from more than 20% to just over 10%.
What is the reason for this? First, the manufacturers making tri-specific bikes are doing a better job of serving this niche market. Second, the tri-specific media, and the word of mouth, has gotten through to this market, and it's eschewing the typical road geometry bike for tri-specific designs. Third, Trek and Cannondale found themselves without compelling tri-specific bikes: Trek with its delay in the Equinox TTX, and Cannondale without a monocoque bike. Indeed, Cannondale needs to determine whether it's an aluminum bike company, or a bike company (is carbon tubes set into aluminum legs are very nice, and I have no beef with this technology, but it appears the Kona-racing market is looking for something C'dale is not offering).
There is one last reason, perhaps, for the shift away from the flagships to the niche brands. It could be that the retailers who serve the tri market well are getting the business that is their due, and these retailers tend to sell the best bike for the purpose, and not rely simply on what the Trek, Cannondale or Specialized is selling.
It is also worth noting that while Specialized gained, from 38 bikes last year to 59, it's still in 9th place, and will probably hit a ceiling until it leverages its formidable carbon S-Works resources against its line of Transition tri bikes.
Consider this fact: The four most recognizable flagship brands in the bike world -- Cannondale, Specialized, Giant and Trek, had 320 bikes in the race. Quintana Roo, Kestrel, Kuota, and Felt totaled 322 bikes. In other words, if you exclude the big dog in the fight (Cervelo had 263 bikes in Kona), the rest of the tri-specific niche pack can stand up for itself.
All this just points to a warning if you're a flagship bike company: Distribution, financing, leverage, Cipollini and Armstrong aren't going to sell you tri bikes. Good tri bikes are going to sell you tri bikes. Trek gets this, and Giant as well. Cannondale's bikes are nice, but the market is apparently not yet convinced in large numbers. Specialized' customers are happy, but might be happier with more carbon.
If you're a flagship bike brand, battle the infidels tooth and nail on the roads of Kona. Best to fight them there, so you don't have to fight them here, where they may deign to take a stab at your road race market share ;-)
BIKE BRAND TOTALS
POWER METERS
TIRES
AEROBARS
AERO WHEELS
SADDLES
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