Men’s IRONMAN Pro Series Outlook Post-Kona
The IRONMAN Pro Series is reaching the conclusion of its inaugural season. As expected, the 2024 IRONMAN World Championships have shaken up the standings, with five new faces moving into the critical top 10 positions with just two races remaining on the calendar.
2024 IRONMAN World Champion Patrick Lange sits atop the standings, jumping for fourth to first and with a 770 point lead over second place Matt Hanson, who improved his series points total with his 10th place finish in Kona. Bradley Weiss moved into third, with Matthew Marquardt‘s 15th place Kona leapfrogged him up from ninth to fourth in the Series. But the big mover was Gregory Barnaby, who turned sixth in Kona into fifth in the series, up 10 spots.
The remainder of the top 10:
- Kristian Hogenhaug (+8 spots)
- Jonas Hoffman (+5)
- Robert Kallin (no change)
- Paul Schuster (+2)
- Stenn Goetstouwers (+3)
But with only 70.3 Western Australia and the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championships remaining on the calendar, there are precious few points available. Winning both races, and assuming you had two open results available, would net you 5,500 points; 2,500 for the win in Western Australia, and 3,000 for the IRONMAN 70.3 World Title. For example, Hanson has scored in five events already, with his worst result a second place at IRONMAN 70.3 Boulder. If he were to win either Western Australia or place well at 70.3 World Championships, his score could only improve by a range of 191 to 691 points — not enough to overtake Lange.
But the top 10 positions are critical, with a combined prize pool to be paid out amongst those top 10 finishers $650,000 USD. As a reminder, the Series prize pool breaks down as follows:
- $200,000
- $130,000
- $85,000
- $70,000
- $50,000
- $40,000
- $30,000
- $20,000
- $15,000
- $10,000
- to 50. $5,000 each
With that and the scores in mind, here’s who has a shot at the top prize.
The current leader Lange has the inside track to victory. Although he has five points scoring finishes to his name, he has two benefits: first, he has a combined 11,000 points from two IRONMAN victories this year; second, his results at 70.3 events are terrible, with two 17th place finishes gaining him just over 3,300 points total. If Lange races either of the two December events, he’s looking at improving his Series score with mediocre results, let alone if he pulls off the World title double. The last male athlete to do it, depending on how you look at it, would be Kristian Blummenfelt in 2022 (winning the “2021” title at St. George in 2022 and 70.3 Worlds that fall) or Jan Frodeno in 2015.
Weiss is another athlete that is high in the standings, but with the strong possibility of improving on his prior 70.3 results. Weiss has a 7th and 16th in his points total; with two victories, Weiss could push his season points total up by 1,593 points, bringing him over 19,000 points for the year.
Marquardt, Barnaby, and Hogenhaug have the advantage of not having five full scores in their combined points totals. A quality result at 70.3 Worlds would be enough to see them push into the top 3 without having to push a score out. Their respective disadvantage is that their one 70.3 scores are both quite good, with Marquardt earning 2,359 points for 3rd at Mont Tremblant, Barnaby 2,477 for his 3rd in Mallorca, and Hogenhaug’s 5th at Mallorca getting 2,324. One factor against Marquardt is that he has not raced outside of North America this year, and as a medical student, he might not have the availability to race in December.
The men have just over a month off until the Pro Series calendar resumes, with 70.3 Western Australia taking place on December 1st, followed by the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship in Taupo, New Zealand two weeks later.
Lead Photo: Donald Miralle for IRONMAN
Barnaby: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images for IRONMAN
Think I heard Patrick is done for the year and it seems to me that Marquardt is really in the drivers seat to take the overall series. He just needs a good result at the 70.3WC and beat the other guys with only 1 race in that category and that 200k is his. And he certainly is an athlete who would do quite well there, and that money is quite the incentive to step away from the books for a few hours a day I would think…
Barnaby is in a similar situation, having an extra 70.3 slot and is only 33s behind Marquardt. Hogenhaug is about 9.5mins behind but still can win if the others have a bad day.
Marquart needs 2041 points or just under 16 mins behind the winner in Taupo (easy enough) to pull ahead of Lange, but must also be 33s ahead of Barnaby (not a given).
Yes he is in a great spot too, and I do not understand Ryans comment about both guys he said here;
“Their respective disadvantage is that their one 70.3 scores are both quite good, with Marquardt earning 2,359 points for 3rd at Mont Tremblant, Barnaby 2,477 for his 3rd in Mallorca”
How is a good score a disadvantage?? Makes no sense, perhaps he can come on here and explain…
A good score is, in this context, a disadvantage because it’s difficult to improve upon it.
What context are you talking about with these two guys??They only have 1 half score done, so the next one is on top of the other "great’ score, not to replace it…What am I missing here??
It would be if they wanted to go to Western Australia AND Taupo to improve one of their weaker scores… They’d have trouble since they already have high points from the other other races. Each of them in theory could make up 500-600 points by winning WA.
Maybe for Hogenhaug who needs a few more points than the others (so there’s more risk/reward, but probably not worth it), but the Strategy for Barnaby and Marquart is easy - just do better than the other guy in Taupo
And there you have it, the overall race for the win is right there in that one race. And unless they both blow up, have a mechanical or get sick, this is the championship race for the series between these two guys…
Patrick did say he was done, but there’s good incentive for him to go to Taupo. Assuming that all 4 guys only do Taupo and not WA, then Lange is the guy in the driver’s seat. He drops his weak score in Oceanside and is still ahead of the other guys.
If he stays home (and to be fair, who wouldn’t?), then he likely winds up Fourth, at $70k. But if he starts Taupo, he has a 7 minute virtual lead on the other guys, which would net him 200k. For a half decent shot at an extra $130k and another line on his Palmares, it’d be worth his while to start making travel plans.
Edit: Actually, nevermind. Lange doesn’t have a slot for Taupo and would need to do WA, which is 500 fewer points, or 8.3 mins. Its still doable for him, but he’s now a virtual minute behind the top 2 guys. Might be doable with a weaker field.
Here’s the updated chart with Lange going to WA and the other three going to Taupo only. Not as clear cut.
We has a winner. Thank you for playing.
I don’t think Patrick is qualified to Taupo. He could only do 70.3 Western Australia.
“Lange has the inside track to victory. Although he has five points scoring finishes to his name,. . . his results at 70.3 events are terrible, with two 17th place finishes gaining him just over 3,300 points total. If Lange races either of the two December events, he’s looking at improving his Series score with mediocre results, let alone if he pulls off the World title double.”
Since he is not qualified for Taupo, the best he can do is win Busselton (2500) which would replace 1615 (his current second 70.3 score). He said at the Post IMWC Press Conference he would not be racing (but as Knibb might say, we’ll see; especially if he reads ST (which I doubt) but maybe his coach Ben Reszel can gain insight).
“Weiss . . . could push his season points total up by 1,593 points, bringing him over 19,000 points for the year.”
Nope. He too is not qualified for Taupo. The most he can improve by winning Busselton is 869 points. He is in a shoot out with Hanson for #5 and #6 and can improve his chance of #5 if he races Busselton (as Hanson can if he races either).
“Marquardt, Barnaby, and Hogenhaug have the advantage of not having five full scores in their combined points totals. A quality result at 70.3 Worlds would be enough to see them push into the top 3 . . . . Their respective disadvantage is that their one 70.3 scores are quite good . . . “
As another has pointed out these three have no such “disadvantage” (they are all 3+1) and as said they are all TQ. I have already shared this, I think:
Lange worst 70.3 = 1615 so max 885 on offer (Busso)
Hanson worst 70.3 = 2309 so max 691 on offer (Taupo)
Weiss worst 70.3 = 1631 so max 869 on offer (Busso)
Marquardt max 3000 on offer (Taupo)
Barnaby max 3000 on offer (Taupo)
Høgenhaug max 3000 on offer (Taupo)
Deductions/Comments:
• Disregard Hanson and Weiss (delta too great)
• Fact: If Lange does not race Busso he will finish on 18623 and be sure of #4 (with the ‘Taupo 3’ jumping him even with an ‘average’ race: 10 minutes down in Taupo).
• Comment: Realistically all the other three will be at least 5 minutes down at Taupo (Wilde/Geens/Bergère/Stornes/Smith and all the T00 ‘crowd’) so max 2700 so it’ll be the differentials between them which matter.
• Comment: Finishing close to winner in Busso by Lange difficult to imagine but so was a third IMWC win!
• Above critically depends on whether a top athlete races Busselton (why would they a fortnight before Taupo?)
• Fact (with conditional): Assume they all race once more and IF Lange wins (2500). Going into Taupo, to beat Lange the leader:
o Marquardt has to get 2927 points (finishing within 73 seconds of winner)
o Barnaby has to get 2950 points (finishing within 50 seconds of winner)
o Høgenhaug can’t
o Every second Lange ‘leaks’ to the Busso winner is an extra second/point that Marquardt/Barnaby can afford to be behind winner in Taupo.
Nice chart but if we take Lange at his word and he is not doing WA, which even if he did most likely would finish well back from the leader, it is a series race between Marquart and Barnaby… Not sure why Ryan thinks Lange has the “inside track to victory”, he likely will finish 4th, 3rd at best. There are your virtual winners as long as they show up healthy and dont have any outside issues…
You still have bottles of Emilio’s tequila kicking around? Because I’ll take one when Lange wins.
Ya, I agree. My quick mental guess after Kona was that Lange didn’t need to show up to Taupo and he’ll still win the series based on the real contenders for Taupo. The people in contention for the IM series won’t be close to the front of 70.3 Worlds to matter.