Our Senior Editors Make Their 70.3 Worlds Predictions

We are just hours away from the kick-off of the 2024 IRONMAN 70.3 World Championships in Taupō, New Zealand. The nervous excitement for the event permeates through us all, whether or not we are racing. And there’s more than ever at stake here this year, as 70.3 Worlds will mark the conclusion of the inaugural IRONMAN Pro Series. There’s an awful lot on the line.

With that in mind, our two senior editors — Kevin Mackinnon and I — have put some thought into it. Here’s what we think we will see happen this weekend.

The Women’s Race

Kevin: It’s hard to imagine there’s a more prohibitive favorite for Saturday’s women’s race than Taylor Knibb. The two-time defending champion is coming off a stellar year. Last year’s runner-up, Kat Matthews, should certainly be the one to watch for another podium finish and a move to the top of the IRONMAN Pro Series standings, even though its hard to imagine how she’s still in one piece after the tough schedule she’s had this year. Any sign of faltering from Knibb or Matthews, especially on the run, will open the door for the speedy run capabilities of Julie Derron and Ashleigh Gentle, or the sheer consistency of last year’s bronze medalist, Imogen Simmonds.

Ryan: On paper, this should be Knibb’s race to win — the two-time defending champion has dominated middle distance and with this course, it should have her name written all over it. But I also find it interesting that Knibb has mentioned in nearly every single interview this week that she’s been battling either an illness or allergies when outdoors in Taupō. I don’t think she’s playing games with it; she’s always straight-forward in her interviews. But that throws a wrinkle into the mix that could open the door of opportunity.

So strike me as someone who thinks that Ashleigh Gentle will be able to defeat Knibb for the first time in a couple of years at this distance. Knibb battles valiantly for second place. And Kat Matthews will take home the IRONMAN Pro Series with a third-place finish here, beating out a fast-closing Julie Derron for it.

The Men’s Race

Kevin: The men’s race is shaping up to be a barn burner. Look for a World Triathlon Championship Series-style lead pack out of the water as the Olympians and speedy swimmers push the pace from the sound of the horn.

Local heroes Hayden Wilde and Kyle Smith will be enjoying the adrenaline rush of what is expected to be an immense crowd of Kiwi supporters, but don’t expect that to affect Jelle Geens or Léo Bergère in the slightest. Defending champ Rico Bogen will no-doubt swim and bike with the leaders, but hanging with this calibre run crowd is going to be a stretch. If Wilde runs the 65-minute half-marathon he believes he’s capable of, there won’t be any touching him. But there will be a few folks in that lead bunch who will do everything they can to ensure his legs are whipped by the time he gets off the bike. 

Ryan: My prediction? Pain.

This has all the makings of a 1970s heavyweight boxing title fight. It’s going to be a war of attrition. Expect drama from the opening cannon, battles back and forth, and a huge surprise in the closing kilometers.

That, in my mind, makes this a race by those with the most WTCS experience; they’re used to spending hours attacking and attacking on the bike, over and over again, while still having the legs to run extremely fast once the hit T2. And who better than home country hero Hayden Wilde to take the win based on those strengths? I think it’s a battle between Wilde and Léo Bergère for the win. But, just like in Paris, Wilde holds him off. For the third spot, I think it goes to the defending champion Rico Bogen; his recent run time from T100 Dubai would see him run a just under 1:09 half marathon. I think that’s probably fast enough to get the job done.

As for the IM Pro Series: my money is on Gregory Barnaby to hold off Matthew Marquardt.

The racing begins later today. Live coverage can be found in the U.S. and Canada on Outside Watch, or globally on DAZN or at proseries.ironman.com.

Tags: