The Contenders for the 2025 IRONMAN World Championship Nice

Patrick Lange takes the 2024 IRONMAN World Championship in Kona. Can he defend his title in Nice? Photo: Donald Miralle for IRONMAN

When it comes to predicting the men’s winner of the IRONMAN World Championship, you’re always best to start with the previous year’s podium finishers or a list of previous winners. From 1999 until 2021, the only time the men’s champion hadn’t been on the podium the year before, or hadn’t won in Kona, was in 2004, when Normann Stadler (GER) took his first title. (Stadler would become one of the “previous champs” with his win in 2006, followed by Aussie Chris McCormack in 2010, is countryman Craig Alexander in 2011 and German Jan Frodeno in 2019.)

Kristian Blummenfelt turned all that around with his St. George win at the 2021 event (that took place in 2022, just to be both clear and to also confuse things), with his Norwegian counterpart Gustav Iden following suit later that year when the world championship returned to Kona. Sam Laidlow got the string of “podium to win” back on track after his runner-up finish in 2022 was followed by the first men’s world championship race in Nice in 2023, with Lange continuing things by following his runner-up finish in Nice with the win in Kona last year.

All of which goes to say that taking your chances of the IRONMAN World Championship title is greatly enhanced by the experience of having been in the hunt for the title at some time before.

There’s another trend that’s important to note – title defences of the IRONMAN World Championship have been a rarity on the men’s side of things since the early days of the sport when Dave Scott and Mark Allen managed their runs. Three-time champion Peter Reid (CAN) never managed a defence – he felt that the pressures on the Kona champion in terms of media and sponsor responsibilities were so great that he once declared that: “Defending the IRONMAN World Championship is the toughest thing to do in our sport.” Since 1996, when Luc Van Lierde (BEL) won his first title, only American Tim Deboom (2001 and 2002), Alexander (2008 and 2009), Frodeno (2015 and 2016) and Lange (2017 and 2019) have managed to win two in a row.

OK, now that today’s IRONMAN World Championship history lesson is over, we can get to the real point of this story – trying to figure out a list of the men most likely to contend for the podium at the upcoming championship in Nice. After my long (and I apologize if boring) intro, it seems appropriate and pertinent to begin with the men who finished on the podium in Kona last year, even though that seemingly shouldn’t be as much of a given considering the vast differences between the course on the Big Island and the one in Nice. Despite the differences (the bike in Nice features lots of climbing and technical descents vs the power-friendly rollers and winds of Kona; the humid and rolling run in Kona vs the flat and fast run along the Promenade des Anglais in Nice), last year’s Kona winners all moved one step up on the podium from the previous year in Nice. Lange moved from second to first, Dane Magnus Ditlev from third to second, and American Rudy Von Berg from fourth to third.

OK, here we go again – I’ll try not to get diverted. We begin our list of top contenders for the title with a look at last year’s podium.

Patrick Lange is the defending champion, and proved his ability to do well in Nice with his runner-up finish to Sam Laidlow the last time the men raced in Nice. The German hasn’t exactly been lighting things up in 2025 – he finished 17th at 70.3 Oceanside and seventh in Frankfurt – but make no mistake, the rest of the field will be thinking of Lange, especially on the run where its not unreasonable to expect a 2:30 (or quicker) marathon.

Magnus Ditlev (above, photo: Kevin Mackinnon) made it abundantly clear to us when we caught up with him in March that he is very determined to move up one more step on the podium to complete his world championship medal collection with a gold. His year started off well with a win in South Africa, but has slowed somewhat since then with a 12th in St. George and eighth in Frankfurt.

Like the other two podium finishers from Kona, Rudy Von Berg arrives in Nice without a lot of racing under his belt – he took second in Oceanside, third at IRONMAN Texas and was ahead of the other two in Frankfurt thanks to his sixth-place finish there. Will the Nice focus and limited racing in 2025 serve these men well as they go after the win in France this year?

Previous Champs

As mentioned earlier, when it comes to picking an IRONMAN World Championship winner, if you’re not looking at the previous podium, your next best bet is to look at previous champions in the field.

Sam Laidlow wins Challenge Roth. Photo: Kevin Mackinnon

Sam Laidlow was the winner of the race in Nice two years ago, out-riding Ditlev and then hanging on with an impressive run (2:41:46) to take the title by almost four minutes over Lange. After a tough day on the Big Island last year, Laidlow struggled with health issues for the first half of 2025 before surging back into the conversation with a big win at Challenge Roth and an impressive Nice validation in Leeds (which he won) just a few weeks later. Can he continue his unbeaten streak of 2025 with another win in Nice?

On paper Kristian Blummenfelt arrives in Nice as the prohibitive favorite thanks to dominating wins at IRONMAN Texas and the IRONMAN European Championship in Frankfurt. He won 70.3 Pays d’Aix in between those two wins, and an unfortunate flat tire derailed his hopes of taking 70.3 Oceanside, but he still posted the day’s fastest run there to end up 15th. While one would think that the long climbs in Nice wouldn’t suit the Norwegian Olympic gold medalist (Tokyo), it’s worth remembering that the St. George course featured lots of climbing, and Blummenfelt was unstoppable there.

The 2022 Kona champion, Gustav Iden, was out of commission for most of 2023 and has had a long journey back to top fitness since then, but a fourth-place finish in Frankfurt bodes well for the Norwegian star. He’s no stranger to doing well in Nice, either – he took his first 70.3 world title there, outrunning Alistair Brownlee to take the win.

Pro Series Contenders

While France’s Leon Chevalier hasn’t finished on the podium at the world championships, he was fifth in Nice in 2023 and took fourth in Kona last year. The Frenchman is competing in his fourth full-distance race of the year, though, so one has to wonder how fresh he’ll arrive in Nice. He is sitting at the top of the IRONMAN Pro Series standings, though, so he’ll certainly be motivated for another top finish as he hunts that title.

Matthew Marquardt wins IRONMAN Lake Placid. Photo: Hector Vivas/Getty Images for IRONMAN

Also in that mix is American Matthew Marquardt, who took impressive wins at IRONMAN Cairns and Lake Placid this year. It’s hard to imagine he can win in Nice if he goes through the cramping that almost sidelined him for both of those wins, but he’s been on quite a roll over the last few months, so it’s not hard to imagine him being in the mix in Nice.

Kristian Hogenhaug (DEN) has a pair of runner-up IRONMAN finishes to his name in 2025, including a brave go off the bike in Frankfurt and another silver in Lake Placid a few weeks later. The Dane was third in the Pro Series standings last year, and is certainly someone who could be amongst the frontrunners.

Newbies

Looking to add their names to the Blummenfelt list of Olympian to IRONMAN world champion are Belgium’s Marten Van Riel and Germany’s Jonas Schomburg. Had he not hurt his ankle a few weeks ago, Van Riel would have arrived in Nice very high on many pundits’ betting cards, but with his participation still up in the air, it’s hard to know where to put him on the contender list.

Schomburg made a last minute appearance in Roth after his handlebars came off his bike in Frankfurt, and promptly took second. Add that to his third-place debut over the distance in South Africa, and you have the makings of an IRONMAN star and world championship contender.

Jason West arrives in Nice with just one full-distance race under his belt – he took fifth in Lake Placid and had the day’s fastest run, despite suffering through the bike – he lost all his nutrition early on when his bottle cages broke. Hopefully he’ll be able to get some calories in during the bike ride in Nice. If he can do that, while pulling out all the stops to stay in contention on the bike, he could surprise many with a top finish.

There are five Norwegians in this field, but the one most likely to contend for a top finish along with Blummenfelt and Iden is Casper Stornes. While he started Frankfurt in 2021, his full-distance finishing career kicked off with a fifth-place finish in Texas, and was followed by a third-place finish in Frankfurt. Thanks to all that time spent training with the two Norwegian IRONMAN champs, he’ll arrive at his first worlds with a lot more knowledge than other first-timers, so will certainly be one to watch for a top finish, too.

Other Names to Add to the List

Cam Wurf races in Kona, 2024.

While it’s hard to imagine he would make the podium, Aussie Cam Wurf finished seventh in Kona last year, was 14th in Nice the year before, and took 11th in Kona in 2022. He’s finished as high as fifth (Kona, 2019), but with the firepower heading into Nice this year, a top-10 finish would certainly be an impressive result for the 42-year-old.

Sam Long will certainly arrive in Nice as one of the most popular athletes, but the American will have his work cut out to overcome what will likely be a large swim deficit. He’s enjoyed success on the challenging climbs in St. George in years past, but whether or not that will translate to success over the longer climbs in Nice remains a question mark.

Antonio Benito (ESP) took second in Texas in May and has been honing his speed with lots of T100 racing this year.

South African Jamie Riddle is another athlete who might surprise with a top finish in Nice, especially if he can help create a lead group out of the water. After competing in the Olympics last year, he’s moved up to full-distance racing with a fifth-place finish in South Africa and a fourth in Cairns.

While it feels like that should be more than enough names to easily cover the top 10 in Nice, there will no-doubt be someone not mentioned here who will finish in that group. I didn’t mention Finn Grosse-Freese (GER) earlier despite his two IRONMAN wins (Austria and Copenhagen), simply because the race in Denmark was only a few weeks ago. Ditto for Mathias Petersen (DEN), who was a close runner-up in Copenhagen.

And I could keep going, no doubt, thanks to the competitive nature of getting to the IRONMAN World Championship these days. So we’ll wrap things up there … and hope that we haven’t missed a podium finisher among the starting list for Nice next week.

Slowtwitch will be in Nice next week – stay tuned for lots more coverage of the IRONMAN World Championship.

Tags: