The Contenders for the Men’s IM World Championship Crown

As of this writing, 55 men are scheduled to take to the starting line come Saturday morning in Kona for the IRONMAN World Championship (it looked like 54, but Arthur Horseau has decided to race after all — at least, at the moment). And with weather that looks relatively mild and with calm winds, it also looks like there’s potential for 2022 World Champion Gustav Iden’s course record to be broken.

But this is Kona. Strange things happen here every race. A relatively fresh-face almost always makes an impact on the race. A favorite will suffer a bike mechanical or penalty. Someone will melt faster than soft serve vanilla ice cream in the Energy Lab. And one of the grizzled veterans will turn in a performance to earn a paycheck that, in the moment, will come as a surprise but shouldn’t (I’m 90% certain that role will be played by Michael Weiss this year).

Here’s how the field breaks down for this Saturday’s race. Tune in live on OutsideTV (United States and Canada) or at proseries.ironman.com (anywhere else globally).

The Five Favorites

Sam Laidlow: The defending champion comes in slightly under-the-radar given his 2024 season. Mind you, he left his validation to the absolute last-minute, which then turned into a separate debacle as to whether a disqualification is a “competitive finish.” But here we are — based on his performance at the last two T100 events, it looks like Laidlow is peaking at the right time. And it’s hard to argue against someone who has stood on the podium for the last two IM World Championships. It’s plausible he leads this thing from the opening cannon and never gives it up.

Kristian Blummenfelt: If Laidlow is the presumed favorite, Blummenfelt is 1b on that list. He gets the nod for that position over countryman Gustav Iden because of Blummenfelt’s consistency over the last three seasons. Just after the Olympics he dominated at IRONMAN Frankfurt, outrunning everyone with a 2:32 marathon. He has a first and a third in his two IM World Championship starts. Many will peg him as the winner pre-race, and it’s a smart pick.

The aforementioned Iden is another popular choice. When he’s healthy, he is a near-lock for winning or second place. But it’s been a long time since we’ve seen that Iden at a race, between injuries and mourning his mother’s death in 2023. His race results this year are all over the map. And yet…the last time he was in Kona, he won the damn thing. A Norwegian 1-2, which was denied by Laidlow in 2022, is not out of the cards.

Magnus Ditlev is a man that shows up in big moments. He’s taken third in the last two world championship events he’s raced. He’s won Challenge Roth twice, riding under four hours for the bike this year on his way to a scorching 7:24:40 finishing time. And he’s had remarkable consistency over the last few seasons, with his worst non-DNF finish since 2022 was a penalty-marred eighth place here in Hawaii. And with suggested lower temperatures than normal, he might be even more dangerous than a typical year in Kona this year.

Patrick Lange is seeking his third IRONMAN World Championship. The 2017 and 2018 champion remains one of the fastest runners in the field. And last year’s performance in Nice showed he’s no longer “just” a run specialist; he made critical moves late in the bike to move up the field and put himself in position to run his way to second place and under four minutes off the win. Historically, Lange either finishes well here or he DNFs. If he’s within eight minutes of the lead coming off the bike, look out.

The Next Men Up

This category is reserved for names that absolutely will not surprise you with good performances on Saturday, and with the right mix of fitness and luck could land on the podium (or even win — stranger things have happened).

Leon Chevalier is a perfect example. He’s finished sixth, seventh, and fifth at the last three IM World Championships. His swim times for those races (at three different venues) are within 90 seconds of one another. Much like last year, his results leading into Kona aren’t strong on paper, with a best finish of fifth at Challenge Roth. He strikes me as someone who has been focused on performing in Hawaii this year.

Rudy Von Berg is right there (and probably the strongest American hope for the podium). He’s an all-around athlete, with a best marathon off the bike of 2:38 coming in his win at IM Florida last year. And he shows up for big races: a win at the IM North American Championships; third at Challenge Roth; an excellent fourth in Nice last year. He seems to handle heat and humidity well. A tactical race tends to suit him, and Kona is almost always a lesson in race craft.

It wouldn’t be Slowtwitch if we didn’t mention the one and only Lionel Sanders. He’s taken two seconds at IM World Championship races. He’s been on the podium of all four races he did this year, winning three of them. And he’s still one of the best bike-run athletes in the game. The question, as always, is “how far back if Lionel from the swim?” But we’ve asked that of multiple world champions over the years.

Daniel Baekkegard has had a somewhat middling 2024 campaign, with his sole podium coming at T100 London. His last win came in December 2023 at IM Western Australia — but that was done in a 7:34:23 finish time. His best finish at an IM World Championships came at the May 2022 St. George race, where he nabbed 7th. All of the tools are there — a competitive swim, a very good bike, consistent under 2:40 runner. Don’t be shocked if he’s at the front of the race late on Saturday.

The Dark Horses

Pieter Heemeryck has never finished an IM World Championship. His racing career is the definition of feast or famine; over the last three seasons he’s either competing at the front of the race or he’s not going to finish. He has the devastating run speed that typically makes for an excellent Kona athlete, with multiple sub-2:38 marathons off the bike to his name. It’s just a question of which Pieter starts on Saturday.

Trevor Foley dialed back his 2024 campaign after the “more is more” approach to 2023. It’s paid off with three wins and a third for results this year, including his slot clinching performance at IRONMAN Lake Placid against a competitive field. Like Lionel, the swim is his greatest liability. If he’s ten minutes down to the likes of Laidlow, or Ditlev, out of the water, it would take a Herculean effort to make headway. But it’s hard to write off somebody who can bike and run this fast.

Speaking of the “more is more” approach, that looks to have been Bradley Weiss’ schedule in 2024. Kona will be his 9th middle to long distance race of the year. After taking 7th last year in Nice, Weiss has only bettered that result once all year. Although that doesn’t appear like an athlete who will be in contention, he had two 7:43 IRONMAN finishes in a month this year. That’s hard to ignore.

Athletes Headed for a Paycheck

I’m thoroughly convinced that the following athletes will take home prize money; as a reminder, the IRONMAN World Championships pay 15 deep.

There’s the aforementioned Michael Weiss, who is almost always in that 10th to 15th place range. I think Ben Kanute won’t be at the front of the race, but he won’t be out of it. Kristian Hogenhaug is another athlete due to finally have a decent IM Worlds finish. And Braden Currie, after missing out on money in his last two IM Worlds races after finishing on the podium in St. George, is my top 10 lock of the week.

Photos: Lead Image – Slowtwitch
Sam Laidlow, Kristian Blummenfelt: Jan Hetfleisch/Getty Images for IRONMAN
Patrick Lange: Huw Fairclough
Lionel Sanders, Trevor Foley: Patrick McDermott/Getty Images for IRONMAN

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