Who Has a Shot at Hamburg Glory?

Our next stop on the 2025 IRONMAN Pro Series brings us to Hamburg for the women’s-only full distance race. Sunday’s race marks roughly the halfway point of the 2025 Pro Series, but it also represents one of the best opportunities for pro women to qualify for the IRONMAN World Championship in Kona. 32 women total have clinched their spots to Kona, and with 5 slots on the line here in Hamburg alongside the $87,500 prize purse, there’s sure to be some drama. Let’s take a look at the field for the weekend.

First, Who Is and Isn’t Here?

There’s been a lot of shifting on the start list, as multiple names have dropped out since start lists were published a few weeks ago.

Six women have pulled out of the field:

• Julie Iemmolo
• Rachel Zilinskas
• Ruth Astle
• Anna Bergsten
• Megan McDonald
• Franziska Hofmann

Of these women, only Iemmolo has qualified for Kona; the rest will need to use one of the scant remaining races to chase down their shot of racing the IRONMAN World Championship this year.

With that in mind, the official start list is as follows:

The Two Favorites

On paper, this should be a duel between defending IRONMAN World Champion Laura Philipp and reigning IRONMAN Pro Series champ Kat Matthews. They have split their head-to-head battles against one another, with Matthews typically prevailing at shorter races, Philipp at full distance events. Philipp also has won at Hamburg before, with a tremendously fast 8:18:20 here in 2022. Matthews, meanwhile, is coming off an authoritative victory at IRONMAN Texas, displaying some newfound bike firepower to go along with her typically fastest-of-the-day run.

I still give the edge to Philipp, if I were a betting man. First, Philipp’s fresher, having not raced until 70.3 Kraichgau last weekend and, surprise, winning by a comfortable margin. Philipp also remains a near dominant threat on the bike (perhaps second only to Taylor Knibb in that regard), and her run is still world class. The only wrinkle in that, perhaps, is the fact that Philipp merely needs a “competitive” finish in order to wrap up her spot on the Kona pier and also has her sights set on winning her first Challenge Roth, just over a month away.

Matthews, on the other hand, appears to be all gas, no brakes at all times. She’s also very strong on the bike (arguably as strong as Philipp), and you’re guaranteed that she’ll be gunning for the win. It might be the safer play on the board. But I still lean toward Philipp, her fresher legs, and being on home soil.

The Defending Champion

It’s probably unfair to Jackie Hering to not include her as a dedicated pre-race favorite. She won this race last year in 8:19:14, edging Maja Stage Nielsen for the win. Hering has also repeated her plan from 2024 to start off the year, taking on two IRONMAN 70.3s in her first two races. She’s going to be competitive.

The problem, statistically, is that Matthews and Philipp are in a class all their own. But statistics don’t lead to a race result. Although mechanical issues on the bike tend to be rarer in Germany than at other professional events (thank you, smoother road surfaces), there’s no guarantees. (Take for example, Matthews’ DQ for passing in a no-pass zone.) Hering will be at the front of the field. I don’t think, if all three athletes perform to expectations, Hering beats out Matthews and Philipp. But that’s why they race…

Athletes Likely to Make Money

Given the number of withdrawals from the starting list, and that 44% of the start list will wind up getting paid (with a single gender pro field, an $87,500 prize purse pays ten deep), we’ve got a pretty lengthy list of athletes in this bucket.

Let’s assume for a moment that Philipp, Matthews, and Hering are all going to finish and wind up on the podium. We’ve now got seven athletes battling it out for money. This is who we expect to see around that marker:

Anne Reischmann captured the first full distance IRONMAN of the Pro Series campaign in South Africa, overcoming an eight-minute swim deficit with the fastest bike and run on the day. She will have her hands full trying to bridge up to a field with this strong of swim-bikers in it, but her results are almost always better the longer the race goes. It would not shock me if she hit the podium here, but a win, I think, is a bridge too far.

Marjolaine Pierré is seeking her first full-distance victory since 2023. Pierré had a tremendous fourth place showing in Nice last September, where she comfortably outclassed Hering. She’s also showing better form to start her year than last, with a win in Pays d’Aix two weeks ago — her first victory of any type since IRONMAN Portugal in 2023. She’ll be amongst the leaders off the bike; it’ll just be a matter of how long she holds on during the run.

From there, it looks like a mix of Sara Svensk, Danielle Lewis, Els Visser, Solveig Løvseth, and Stephanie Clutterbuck rounding out your top 10 finishers. Of them, Lewis and Løvseth are the two who seem best on form, with podium finishes this year to their names. Both come with weaknesses, though, that keep them from contending with some of the names further up. Lewis will have a very large swim gap to make up, but her bike and run always give her a chance to make money. Løvseth, meanwhile, makes her full distance debut — and there’s always something interesting that can happen there.

The Qualification Implications

As mentioned, Philipp merely needs to validate her defending champion slot — so we can exclude her from the athlete count. Also already qualified are Clutterbuck, Matthews, Reischmann, and Svensk.

Given that, I’d say your qualifiers will look to be Hering, Pierré, Lewis, Visser, and Løvseth — assuming that it is your final top 10.

Live coverage of IRONMAN Hamburg will be available at proseries.ironman.com.

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