forum shop Logotype

Five Freezing Cold Takes for the Men’s 2025 IRONMAN World Championship

Championship season is upon us, with the kickoff to it just two days away at the men’s 2025 IRONMAN World Championship in Nice, France. I think the one thing that we can all agree on: September does not make it feel like world championship season. Don’t just take my word for it: Google Trends shows that the September race doesn’t have quite the same search volume as a certain race in October.

The largest spikes are in and around Kona, regardless of gender.

Now, could that be due to tradition? Because interest is “only” in Kona? We only have this year left to figure that out, as IRONMAN will move back to a single-day world championship format for the full distance in 2026.

Photo: Tim Hemming

With all that in mind, we’re focused on the professional race here. Based on the above sign-in chart, 56 men appear to be ready to start on Sunday morning. To put on the hyperbole hat for a moment, it’s one of the deepest fields ever to race the IRONMAN World Championships, with a mix of the old IRONMAN guard (Kristian Blummenfelt, Patrick Lange, Magnus Ditlev and Cameron Wurf) and full-distance world championship debuts (Martin Van Riel and Jonas Schomburg), among plenty of others.

Here are my patented “Freezing Cold Takes” for Sunday. Although I’ve had a decent track record with my predictions, you can be assured I will be wrong at some point. (And feel free to make fun of me for it in the Forum).

This is Kristian Blummenfelt’s Race to Lose

Photo: Kevin Mackinnon

This feels like the moment in Infinity Wars just before Thanos picks up the final Infinity Stone. You know that he’s going to win. You feel it in your bones.

Blummenfelt and team left no stone unturned during the off-season after a lackluster 2024 post-Paris. Blummenfelt had struggled at multiple events with stomach issues and was not the same explosive, dynamic athlete that had rampaged across events across all distances from 2022 to the start of 2024. And it looked like his string of bad luck and results might continue in 2025, with a flat tire contributing to a 15th place finish at Oceanside.

Naturally, he’s since won the three races he has started, all in characteristic Blummenfelt form: good swim, eye-watering bike splits, and blistering run pace. He’s run 2:30 and 2:34 marathons this year on run courses that are harder than the one he’ll face on Sunday. Sure, they are not off the back of the kind of bike course that Nice provides. But, on paper, he’s the overwhelming favorite. A Blummenfelt win feels inevitable.

The Three Most Likely to Dethrone Him: Rudy Von Berg, Magnus Ditlev and Gustav Iden

Let’s start off with Ditlev. My initial inkling when starting to write this article was to take him for the win here. But that would be ignoring the mountain of evidence that Blummenfelt’s 2025 has thrown my way. And Ditlev, since his win in South Africa in March, has not exactly set the world on fire, with a 12th in St. George and an eighth in Frankfurt. Granted, those results included two flats in Utah and a bizarre red card (that was later rescinded, in Frankfurt. Perhaps most critically, though, his run was nearly 18 minutes behind Blummenfelt in Germany. That won’t work in Nice.

But Ditlev has also typically performed at his best when he’s flying under the radar. And he seems to be on that path at the moment.

Von Berg, meanwhile, simply shows up at the biggest races. Fourth here in 2023. Third at Roth last year. Third in Kona last year. Second at Oceanside and third at a deep field at IRONMAN Texas. When it’s time to make a big paycheck, Von Berg cashes in. He’s my pick for top American. He’s my pick for the podium. And it would not shock me to see him win the damn thing, either. He’s right there. The question will be whether the opportunity presents itself.

Lastly: can we say how nice it is to have Iden back? We’ve seen flashes of brilliance from Iden, between a third in Oceanside and fourth at Frankfurt. There haven’t been the kind of dominant performances we were used to from him in that 2019-2022 timeframe, but it’s fair to say that he’s no longer lost in the hinterlands. Iden’s in that weird spot where any result from him would be unsurprising. He won? Not a shock. He DNF’d? OK. He finished top five? Sure! It’s all in play — including taking the top step.

Jonas Schomburg Takes a Top 5; Marten Van Riel Won’t

Jonas Schomburg takes second at Challenge Roth 2025. Photo: Kevin Mackinnon

Obviously we can’t claim these two to be the top 2024 Olympians to compete in 2025 — that honor will go to Mr. Blummenfelt. But both have had standout success “graduating” to long course racing. Van Riel, of course, took the inaugural T100 World Tour title. Schomburg, meanwhile, has primarily raced IRONMAN branded events.

Of the two, Schomburg has proven himself at the full-distance more consistently than Van Riel has. The two podium finishes this year include a sterling second at Roth. Van Riel, meanwhile, needed to finish second at South Africa to get himself here, then primarily went back to shorter distance events. That said, Van Riel has also been battling an ankle issue, compromising his lead up. We’ve seen athletes have great success with less run training (the old “there’s a fine line between fit and f*cked” adage seems at play). Both Tim O’Donnell and Ben Hoffman have credited strong successes at the IRONMAN World Championship to being forced not to do as much running in the build up to the event.

Still, my money’s on Schomburg. He was less than two minutes off the win in Roth, and he’s going to be a factor on early in the day.

Sam Laidlow Will Be a Factor, Until He Isn’t

Sam Laidlow (right) at today’s press conference. Photo: Kevin Mackinnon

Laidlow’s the greatest wildcard player here. He’s the defending champion on this course. He’s proven time and again that he can ride like his hair’s on fire and then run well enough. Perhaps the surprise in his Roth win was his running pedigree, only being out-split by Matt Hanson.

We know Laidlow’s typical world championship playbook: swim near the front, then get away on the bike. It worked in Kona in 2022 and here in 2023. It, of course, failed spectacularly last year. And it took a long time for Laidlow to recover from that effort. Then he raced two full distance races in three weeks, winning Roth and Leeds.

That throws a lot of red flags up for me. It’s a Lionel Sanders-esque play to go that hard this close to a world championship event. Between that, and knowing that Laidlow’s got one real card to play here, I think we’re more likely to see a Kona 2024 blow-up than we are a repeat of his glory here in 2023. (This is also where I am most likely to eat the most crow.)

Sam Long Will Bike and Run to a Paycheck

On paper, Long is out of his element at a full-distance event. He’s won one full distance race in the last four years, and that was a non-swim Chattanooga event. He was the final paycheck earner at the St. George world championship race, on a race course that suits him. His swim is even more exposed for these long course races, where he will likely be seven or eight minutes back of the lead pack.

The advantage I think Long has to work his way through the field here is where the climbing is. With a bulk of the hard climbing so early in the day, it should give Long his best opportunity to reel people in with his brute strength. With so much climbing, too, it should limit much of the chance for Long to wind up in a position foul situation on the bike, which derailed his 70.3 World Championship race in St. George.

Long has also been running well over the last year, with strong performances across T100, 70.3, and full distance events. I think a top 10 is well within his reach.

Tags:

IRONMANIRONMAN World Championshipironman world championship 2025IRONMAN World Championship NiceNice 2025Opinion

Notable Replies

  1. Patrick Lange is reigning champion and was second on this very course the WC before that win.

    But sure.

  2. Avatar for pk pk says:

    virtually impossible that not one of those 3 will be top 5
    Lange Laidlow Leon.
    2 super consistent world champ performers and the defending nice champ.

    first row, laidlow Blum Lange
    the 2nd row Magnus,
    3rd row and of course one should not count of a previous world champ like Iden and a previous podium winner in von berg and van riel.
    4 row chevalier and schomburg serious podium contenders
    and I guess hogenhaug deserves a mention.

    1. Blu
    2. Laidlow
    3. Stornes
  3. Freezing Cold Takes. It’s part of the deal.

  4. Thank you for throwing a freezing cold rock in the lake.
    I think you are too pessimistic about Laidlow (who I think will win). And fail to recognise his improved run which means the chasers will themselves be forced to ‘overbike’, or at least bike harder than they’d choose, to be within striking distance. He will have sufficient buffer in T2 and surprise those behind with a sub-2:40 run (see also Kona 2022 but faster).
    And btw that time gap can be measured at Coursegoules (160k): I doubt there’ll be much difference in athletes descending with maybe RvB gaining a minute on the rest. Likely beat KB? Would love it but very doubtful.

    Speaking of whom, you identify Von Berg as a potential winner. I am unable to envisage that. Podium yes, but how on earth (what race dynamic) can he win?

    I’m afraid I am pessimistic about Ditlev. His form, compared to his successes last year, has been poor. Look at Roth 2024 (and T100 Miami before that) and then Kona! Now consider his races in 2025. Nothing burger.

    How great would it be for Iden to go well. I watched him (on the box) ride so well down the hill and in person on the Promenade des Anglais run away from Brownlee this time 6 years ago. But sentimental support only gets an athlete so far.

    You completely ignore Lange. I assume this is because you set yourself a word limit and his lines didn’t make the cut. If he has a decent swim he will be a threat to all those around and only an Olympic Champion will run faster.

    But then you waste 10 on Long who has a very weak full distance palmares, certainly compared to the top 10 on the start list. At least he won’t be DFL out of the water, but it’ll be close. He’ll lose time to the players on the bike and then will maybe get a top 10 run, maybe. Is this just a sop to the legions of fanboys? Isn’t Von Berg American enough? (At least the latter didn’t embarass himself with that animal hat.)

    Blummenfelt is the benchmark against whom all others will be measured, usefully not out in the lead nor too far back.

    I expect an eventful race and fervently hope the broadcast does it justice. And that the commentators are fed information to allow them to be insightful including moves further back in the field and avoid wasting words on running and riding styles and body shapes.

  5. Shhhh don’t tell anyone.

  6. Agreed, I can’t think of a single major race Kristian won in 2021.

  7. Or 2020 think there was a huge global event he was in.

  8. The one that happened in 2021?

  9. Avatar for timr timr says:

    I agree with you. Strange.

  10. I have not following Lange’s form lately, but Lange’s trailing 4 month performance is almost never an indication of his following championship form. This course favours him because mathematically he uses the least numberr of kilojoules on the bike of anyone in the top ten

  11. Covid nightmare coming back to bite me.

    Correct and apologies.

  12. Avatar for pk pk says:

    he is playing the Lange an Phillip game, focus on the key race you really want to be your best, and don’t waste too much energy on the rest.

  13. Avatar for stevej stevej says:

    The 2021 IMWC occurred in 2022.

  14. Maybe, but (a) see 2023 and Roth then Nice and (b) see 2024 and Roth then Kona. Change of tactic this year? Try for the IM Pro Series. Get unlucky in two competitive races and generally underperform.
    As for Philipp she went real deep in Hamburg and then put serious effort into Roth. Was this “focus on the key race she really wants to be her best in, and don’t waste too much energy on the rest.”
    Unlike Ditlev Philipp has performed x2 and (off topic) we’re in for a treat in a month’s time with (imho) a three way battle for the win: hare/rabbit, chaser 1 and chaser 2. With Derron, Knibb and Loevseth (and maybe Perterer) providing colour.

    Anyway, time for a few hours sleep before an early ‘start’ in 6 hours’ time.

Continue the discussion at forum.slowtwitch.com

11 more replies

Participants

Avatar for anon56785290 Avatar for timr Avatar for Joss1965 Avatar for Ajax_Bay Avatar for stevej Avatar for rrheisler Avatar for Diabolo Avatar for ThailandUltras Avatar for pk Avatar for ALG Avatar for devashish_paul

Be honest: do you know how to change a flat on your bike?

If given the choice, you prefer to ride a wheel that is:

Do you believe that hookless wheels are unsafe, or simply not for you?