The Pro Contenders for IRONMAN 70.3 Title Glory

The finale of the 2024 racing season is upon us with the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championships this weekend. More than 6,000 athletes will take to the course in Taupō across the two days of racing. As Kevin detailed earlier this week, it’s a massive contingent of athletes.

Among them are over 100 professional men and women seeking their shot at their respective IRONMAN 70.3 World Championships. It is a packed field, with defending champions, former world title winners, and Olympic medalists all counted amongst the starters. Nearly all of them cited fatigue heading into the final race of 2024 during yesterday’s press conference. With so many tired bodies, it makes previewing such a field difficult. Still, here are the names we expect to be fighting at the front of the field this weekend.

The Women’s Race: Can Anyone Dethrone Taylor Knibb?

Taylor Knibb comes into the race an overwhelming favorite to retain her IRONMAN 70.3 world title for the third consecutive year. It has been over two years since Knibb lost a middle distance race — her second place at the 2022 PTO US Open. Since then it’s been 9 starts and 9 victories for Knibb at this or equivalent distance. That said, you have to get to the starting line healthy — and Knibb has made mention that she’s dealing with some type of allergy or illness at the moment. Still, you have to factor her dominance in; she’s not just winning races, but controlling them from the front.

The last woman to beat Knibb at middle distance? The one and only Ashleigh Gentle. Gentle earned her way to this race with a thrashing of the field at 70.3 Langkawi, closing out a year where she finished no worse than third in every one of her starts. 2024 has been slightly less kind, with two T100 events off of the podium. Gentle was 2.5 minutes behind Knibb at their last event in Dubai. On the right day, though, Gentle is as dangerous as anyone.

Last year’s runner-up Kat Matthews has had an incredibly busy year, bouncing between T100 and IRONMAN Pro Series events. She’s been very successful at it, with two wins and three seconds, including her runner-up performance at the IRONMAN World Championships in Nice. Matthews typically excels in challenging conditions. Although the weather looks tame for the women’s race, the punchy bike course may favor Matthews’ style.

Olympic silver medalist Julie Derron has proven to have elite middle distance speed, with multiple wins and podiums to her name. In races that she finished second in, she was only beaten by…you guessed it, Knibb. She showed excellent race craft on her way to the silver medal in Paris. If she’s in the front pack of the swim, she’s in excellent shape to contend.

Another athlete who has raced well against Knibb is Paula Findlay. Findlay started the year strong, with wins in St. George and Mont Tremblant, along with a strong third-place in Oceanside to Knibb and Emma Pallant-Browne. However, the second half of the year has seen a little bit of fade, with finishes of 5th, 6th, and 11th in the final T100 events on Findlay’s schedule. Still, Findlay has finished no worse than 5th since 2019 at 70.3 Worlds; this is a race she usually shows up for in spades. And a punchy bike followed by a flat run should suit her.

Other names to watch: Last year’s podium finished Imogen Simmonds has had a very mixed year. It feels a mistake to ignore someone who has multiple podiums at 70.3 Worlds to her name, though. Pro Series leader Jackie Hering will most likely lose that position to Matthews in this race, as Matthews will be able to add full points to her total this weekend. Expect to see Hering fight, though, to keep a tight hold on second and the sizable Pro Series check that comes with it. Ellie Salthouse has multiple wins to her name this year, along with podiums behind some of the big names mentioned above. She’s won 18 70.3s in her career, but never “the big one;” her best finish at 70.3 Worlds is 8th.

The full women’s field:

Men’s Race: Will Hayden Wilde Take a Home Win?

Two-time Olympic medalist Hayden Wilde is racing just his third IRONMAN 70.3 event, fourth middle distance event, and his first of this distance of all of 2024. The silver medalist in Paris, Wilde has showcased three discipline prowess in his middle distance starts and, in particular, the blistering run pace that is often required for a breakthrough victory. He’s shown strength racing on home soil in Taupō before, having earned a podium finish in his debut 70.3 here in 2019.

Looking to disrupt him is Paris bronze medalist Léo Bergère. Bergère narrowly missed chasing down Wilde for second place in Bergère’s home race; he’ll try to return the favor to the Kiwi in Taupō. Like Wilde, he has just a handful of middle distance races to his resume. Unlike Wilde, though, Bergère is undefeated at IRONMAN 70.3 starts, winning in Lanzarote, Oceanside, and Valencia. It would not be surprising to see these two in a late-race duel for the win.

That said, there are many athletes with more 70.3 experience and accolades who are worthy of consideration. One of those is Wilde’s fellow Kiwi Kyle Smith. Smith defeated Wilde in that 2019 race in Taupō, and he also won here last year to earn his way to this weekend’s event. Smith is on excellent form, with two wins and two seconds to his name this year. In six middle distance races this season, Smith has finished no worse than fifth — and for that performance you have to go back to April’s T100 event in Singapore to find it.

Defending champion Rico Bogen has had a mixed 2024 campaign following his surprise win in Lahti. He hasn’t won a race since 70.3 Worlds last year. Out of 10 starts since Lahti, Bogen’s appeared on the podium just four times, with three thirds and a single second place finish. However, it could also be a case of Bogen building his season around the back half of the year; he’s had two podiums in his last three starts, all of which have come since September 1st. And his best performance of over a year was his last one, a strong second place showing at the T100 finale in Dubai.

Potentially flying under the radar is Marc Dubrick. Like Youri Kuelen (who will not be starting), he followed a top-10 in Lahti with a strong close to 2023, taking a win and two seconds. Dubrick hasn’t matched that run of success in 2024, but he did just take third in Western Australia two weeks ago with a strong swim-bike performance. And he says that this weekend’s race has been his focus for the entire year. Given his swim and bike prowess, the over 2,000 feet of climbing during the bike followed by a flat run here may play into his strengths.

Other names to watch: IRONMAN Pro Series points leader Gregory Barnaby typically excels the longer the race goes. Still, a win against a competitive field in Western Australia, backing up a strong performance in Kona, suggests good form. And he has extra motivation to try to hold onto that sizable first place check that comes from a Pro Series win.

Looking to spoil that party is Matthew Marquardt. The American has the advantage of having an open points score and those critical additional points on offer here. Like Barnaby, he’s more of an IRONMAN specialist. Unlike Barnaby, he does not have a wealth of experience at 70.3 pro racing to rely on. Could make for an interesting race within a race.

Expect to see Jason West and Matt Hanson running through the field at some point. But how far up that field? Probably too much firepower at the top-end to see them take down a win, but somewhere in that 5th-7th range feels plausible.

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