If you mix in the vagaries of the points chase for the ITU/Dextro Energy World Championship Series, things get too complicated. So, treating this race as if it were a standalone one-day World Championship to accompany the new, exciting, season-long points race (which he earnestly lobbies for), here are the odds for the elite women at the Australian Gold Coast Grand Final.

Lisa Norden (SWE) 3-1

If Emma Moffat had not been battling plantar fasciitis for the last six weeks, the Australian would have been a prohibitive home country favorite on the Gold Coast track. That’s because Moffat outran Norden by more than a minute in each of their first three head-to- head matchups (Washington DC 34:24 to 38:03; Hy-Vee 35:37 to 36:47; and outdueled Norden for the win at Hamburg 34:28 to 35:25). When Moffat retreated for treatment, Norden came strong to lose by a second to fellow Darren Smith squadmate Daniela Ryf at London, running 33:00 to Ryf’s 32:59. Then at Yokohama, Norden got revenge on Kiwi Andrea Hewitt for Hewitt’s finish line lunge win at Madrid with a five second win while setting fastest run with a closing 35:07. The 24-year-old Swede, the 2007 ITU Under 23 World Champ, is cool as ice under pressure, reliably near top form every time out, and seems to have worked her way out of early season knee problems.

Emma Moffat (NZL) 7-2

Working with fellow Emma, Snowsill, and her fiancé/coach Craig Walton, Moffat has emerged as the new star of 2009. After a second place to a semi-healthy Snowsill at Tongyeong, Moffat was ready for her closeup. She swept to a 25-second win over Snowsill at Washington DC, a 34-second win over Nicola Spirig at Kitzbuhel, and a 54-second win over Norden at Hamburg. Moffat says she feels no pain from her plantar fasciitis, but it says here six weeks off dulls race sharpness and will open the door to her challengers. Maybe.

Andrea Hewitt (NZL) 9-2

This mighty mite outsprinted Norden in a photo finish at Madrid (5th best run), then was outrun and lost a not-so-close clash and dash to the Swede to end the season at Yokohama (2nd best run). In between, Hewitt took 6th places at Hy-Vee and Washington DC (6th best run), 3rd at Kitzbuhel (3rd best run) and 9th at London (9th best run). Seems like a natural pick for the bronze – if she is on.

Nicola Spirig 5-1

This Swiss law student with the good looks of a model started the 2009 season late but came on strong with a 2nd at Kitzbuhel and a win at the prestigious Olympic preview event at London. This 2008 Olympian coached by Brett Sutton is the strongest women’s cyclist on the ITU circuit, as seen in her breakaway on a flat course in rainy London, which she backed up with a race-best run and a finish line sprint win over Norden. Reason for pessimism: a discouraging fade from lead pack on the bike to 16th with a 10th best run at Yokohama.

Daniela Ryf (SUI) 11-2

This tall, strong young squadmate with Lisa Norden and Jennifer Shoemaker under excellent Aussie coach Darren Smith has the ability to break away on the bike even on a flat course (Hamburg set top bike by 30 seconds). Ryf’s highlights were 3rd places at Washington DC and Hamburg, bookended by an 8th at Madrid and a 6th at London. Mid season form may be heading south as evidenced by a 16th at Yokohama against one of weakest fields on the WCS series. Reason for optimism; third best run at Washington DC, Reason for pessimism: 20th best run at Hamburg.

Liz Blatchford (GBR) 6-1

Great Brit has worked hard to overcome injuries and regain her top-five form of 2004. Her 4th place at Yokohama shows recent form is headed the right direction.

Annabel Luxford (AUS) 13-2

Same story with Luxford, who has struggled since her $40,000 2nd place finish at Hy-Vee in 2007. recent form 5th place finish at Yokohama and home country advantage bodes well for Luxford on the Gold Coast.

Helen Jenkins (GBR) 7-1

Has not regained 2008 ITU World Championship gold medal form after marriage to Mark Jenkins, but steady 5th at Washington DC, 5th at Kitzbuhel and 3rd at prestigious London race shows she still has medal capability.

Jure Ide (JPN) 15-2

Her World Cup win at Ishigaki marked 2008 Olympian Ide as Japan’s greatest ITU triathlete. Her 3rd places at Tongyeong and Yokohama nicely bookended her 7th ranking WCS season and mark her as a home-hemisphere threat for a medal at Gold Coast.

Sarah Haskins (USA) 8-1

Operating at 70 to 85 percent while wrestling with a leg-nerve problem, the 2008 ITU World Championship silver medalist still scored big non-drafting wins at Minneapolis and Chicago, and also scored 4th at Washington DC, 5th at Madrid, 6th at Hamburg and 9th at Yokohama. Another month of improvement in her leg could put Haskins on the podium.

Lauren Groves (CAN) 17-2

Tenth places at Washington DC and Kitzbuhel plus an improved 4th at Hamburg mark the Canadian as a long shot threat.

Kate Allen (AUT) 9-1

The smashing runner who took come-from-behind Olympic gold in 2004 still had enough firepower for a 7th at home country Kitzbuhel with 4th-best run.

Elizabeth May (LUX) 11-1

Luxembourg rising tri star was missing in action early, but scored a 4th at London with a 4th best run and a 7th at Yokohama to show she is in the hunt for metal.

Sam Warriner (NZL) 12-1

The 2008 ITU World Cup series point champion has been fighting injuries and off form. But she posted the fastest run and a 7th place finish in Madrid and just won the ITU Aquathlon World Title. Last year she scored a bronze at ITU Worlds, and may be on the way back.

Kirsten Sweetland (CAN) 13-1

After a close but no cigar duel for the $200,000 win at Hy-Vee in 2007, a win and a podium in World Cups, Sweetland fell off the map for a while with injuries. A win at the Mooloolaba World Cup this spring showed this Canadian has the firepower to contend, but after a midseason slump, showed back up on the radar with an 8th place finish at Yokohama. Next year.

Magali di Marco Messmer (SUI) 15-1

The 2000 Olympic bronze medalist has been overshadowed this season by younger Swiss stars Daniela Ryf and Nicola Spirig. Scored a 6th at Madrid, 19th at Washington and three straight 13th place finishes at Kitzbuhel, Hamburg, and London.

Anja Dittmer (GER) 14-1

German vet seems on the upcurve with a 7th at Hamburg and a 5th at London.

Debbie Tanner (NZL) 18-1

Once dueling with Emma Snowsill at the front of ITU races, 2008 Olympian Tanner has ceded star status of New Zealand women to Hewitt. In a slump, only cracked the top 10 with an 8th at London.

Barbara Riveros Diaz (CHI) 19-1

Solely on the basis of her breakthrough 5th at Hamburg, this Chilean newcomer has joined the possible contenders in ITU.

Sarah Groff (USA) 20-1

Top-scoring US woman in the 2008 ITU World Cup series, Groff’s recent second place to Sarah Haskins at non-drafting Chicago and early-season second place at Ironman California 70.3 show there is more in the tank than her 9th place finishes at WCS races in Madrid and Washington and 10th at London.

Vanessa Fernandes (POR) 25-1

Would be first or second pick if healthy. Knocked out of entire WCS series with injuries. But if Fernandes, with her record-setting 20 World Cup wins and Olympic silver, shows up on the start line, she still will strike fear into the field.

Laura Bennett (USA) 33-1

Has been struggling with injury all season long but still scored a 12th at Washington DC. A fine bet for a medal if healthy.