Time flew since the 2008 Olympics when it seemed as if there were many more US men and women in the hunt for the glory of marching in front of the flame and competing for the red white and blue than there are today.
Back then, young Jarrod Shoemaker and his fabulous run crashed the party of the Big Three favorites – two-time Olympian Hunter Kemper, 2004 Olympian Andy Potts and the red-hot, big-and-tall Matty Reed – and took the first spot at the 2007 Beijing World Cup. When Round Two in Tuscaloosa and Round Three at Hy-Vee in Des Moines were over, Reed and Kemper were in and Potts was the odd man out in a cruel elimination of talented men. And in the quest for a long shot slot, noble chasers like Doug Friman, Tim O’Donnell, Brian Fleischmann and Mark Fretta had their shot.
In the women’s chase, the heroes of 2000 and 2004 – Jennifer Gutierrez, Barb Lindquist, Sheila Taormina, Joanna Zeiger and Susan Williams were out of the game. But long-frustrated Laura Bennett was ready for her close-up, as were Julie Ertel and rising star Sarah Haskins – coming off a near win at the 2008 ITU world championship. Giving noble efforts that made the Olympic chase exciting were Sarah Groff, Becky Lavelle, Joanna Zeiger, Mary Beth Ellis, Jasmine Oeinck, Amanda Stevens, Rebeccah Wassner and Sara McLarty.
But this year, the field of contenders for the American Olympic Triathlon team has narrowed quite a bit thanks to rigorous qualifying procedures keeping the number of US men and women eligible for a shot this weekend quite limited. Theoretically two US men and two US women can sew up spots on the traditionally three-person squads – if they both finish in the top nine of their red-hot 66-person fields.
Yet just four US men will toe the line – favorites Hunter Kemper and Jarrod Shoemaker, not-so-long shot Matt Chrabot, and still rising Manny Huerta. For various reasons, Andy Potts and Matt Reed have lost interest in the long, frustrating ITU points chase and a highly motivated, highly talented, newly minted American citizen Greg Bennett will not be teeing it up in London for reasons that are not immediately apparent.
The U.S. women are a little better represented – they have five contenders in London. The three favorites are veteran Laura Bennett with four ITU World Championship medals and 4th at Beijing in her shining resume, oft-highly-ranked ITU racer Sarah Haskins with a silver at the Vancouver 2008 ITU Worlds and a slew of other wins, joined recently by rising star Sarah Groff, still on a high after her podium at the Kitzbuhel WCS race in June. And they are joined by two hard-working, still-improving stars in waiting – Gwen Jorgenson and Jillian Peterson. Missing from London are Mary Beth Ellis, Jenna Parker, Alicia Kaye, Becky Lavelle, Nicole Kelleher. While the experienced favorites will all toe the line, the pipeline to the US Olympic team is not as wide, not as open to long shot surprises, as it used to be.
Before evaluating the American crop’s chances of earning a slot, it must be noted that triathlon powers Great Britain, France, Australia and New Zealand also have first Olympic slots at stake. In such a deep talented and motivated field, even the best of our men and women will have a tough time finishing top 9. In the men’s field, they will have to whip the likes of British superstars Alistair and Jonathan Brownlee, Will Clarke and ITU World Champ and Hy-Vee champ Tim Don, Spain’s incredible Javier Gomez, Australia’s recent Hamburg winner Brad Kahlefeldt, Germany’s Olympic gold medalist Jan Frodeno, Canada’s Olympic hero Simon Whitfield, New Zealand’s two-time Olympic medalist Bevan Docherty, French stars Laurent Vidal and Frederic Belaubre, Russians Dimitry Polyansky and Alexander Brukhankov…. Did I list more than 10 certified stars? You get the picture.
Same for the women, who have to mix it up with three Australians Emmas (Moffatt, Snowsill and Jackson) who just filled the podium at Hamburg, Kiwis Andrea Hewitt, Kate McIlroy and Debbie Tanner, Sweden’s ITU World Championship silver medalist Lisa Norden, Switzerland’s dynamic duo and WCS stars Daniela Ryf and Nicola Spirig, Chile’s Barbara Riveros-Diaz, Great Britain’s multiple world medalist Helen Jenkins. Did I just go over 10 again?
It will be tough. But this is the country that believes in miracles, right?
In order, here are the Americans with the best chances of securing the immortal glory of an Olympic slot at London and the reasons why.
Men
Hunter Kemper, 36, Colorado Springs
Am I kidding, you ask? After all he barely fought off career-threatening sacroiliac injuries and other maladies to eke out a third US Olympic team in 2008. Was he lucky? At Beijing, while still not on top of his ability after injuries, he finished an Olympic personal best 7th. In the past year, he fought off a dangerous reoccurrence of the SI joint injury and restricted training to score his first World Cup (not WCS) win in five years, might well have won Cap Tex (with by far the fastest run) over Andy Potts if he and the majority of the men’s field were not misdirected by an ill informed swim course marshal. Also won Monroe Pan American Cup with a stellar run. Means little outside of the pressure cooker WCS races – except that Kemper is running at his world class best again and has spent the greater part of a year without injury. Whole he has missed most of the WCS races due to lingering injury, when healthy he took 5th at the 2009 WCS race in Washington DC and beat Bevan Docherty at Escape From Alcatraz last year.
Jarrod Shoemaker, 29, Maynard, Massachusetts
Should be ranked ahead of Kemper but this year has not been on his game as he has been. In 2009 he won the Hamburg WCS event – the first American to win in that supercharged series. Had four straight top 10s in the 2010 WCS series. Has three world championships -- Under 23, Junior, and elite duathlon. Among top 10 fastest runners in the sport. So why won’t he beat Kemper? In 2011, Shoemaker is off his best. He was 43rd in Sydney, 20th in Madrid, DNS Kitzbuhel, 47th in Hamburg. And he finished 6th at the Monterrey World Cup – behind Hunter Kemper, who won. Recent form is not infallible, as Shoemaker has shown again and again he is capable of big days.
Matt Chrabot, 28, Colorado Springs Colorado
This year he had been decent, winning Miami International and taking 3rd at Escape From Alcatraz, and placing 8th at Monterrey World Cup – well behind winner Hunter Kemper. If he were in 2009-2010 form, he’d contend for America’s top pick. Surely his 2010 races including 4th at the Kitzbuhel WCS, 2nd at Life Time Fitness Minneapolis, 2nd at the Monterrey World Cup, won at Miami International plus his 2009 heroics which included a US elite title, 2nd at Chicago and 9th at Sydney WCS would have made him a short odds man for London. But not at the moment.
Manuel Huerta, 27, Colorado Springs.
Anyway you cut it, this stylish Havana, Cuba-born speedster is the American men’s dark horse. Top finishes include a 13th at the 2010 Hamburg WCS race and 24th at Kitzbuhel WCS race this year.
The Women
Laura Bennett, 36, Boulder, Colorado
Has the best credentials among American women – ITU World Championship medals in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2007, a $200,000 Hy-Vee victory in 2007, and a 4th place at the 2008 Olympics in Beijing. Overcame threatening injuries to arrive in Beijing healthy enough to contend and took time off to recover after the Olympics. Careful, slow return to form shows Bennett is the most consistent threat in WCS events the last two years to grab the first US women’s medal.
While not as spectacular as her World Championship run, here is why Bennett should sew up an Olympic spot in London: 2010 WCS races – 14th Sydney, 8th Madrid, 7th Hamburg, 8th Kitzbuhel, 8th Budapest. In the 2011 WCS races – 6th Sydney, 8th Madrid, 6th Kitzbuhel, skipped Madrid to focus on London.
Has first pack swim, good biker handler, top 10 run. Best bet.
Sarah Haskins, 30, Colorado Springs, Colorado
When completely healthy, Haskins has proved she is American women’s best bet. But even battling very troublesome ankle woes for the past three and a half years, her record has been very impressive: Silver medal at 2008 ITU World Championship, 4th at the 2009 ITU WCS Grand Final, won 2009 USA Triathlon Elite Championship, 4th at 2010 Kitzbuhel WCS and 2nd at 2010 Life Time Fitness.
Haskins has front pack swim, great bike handling (she and Helen Jenkins broke away from the field at 2008 Vancouver ITU Worlds) and 1b-tier, 35-minute 10k foot speed.
Latest results show Haskins has largely recovered from injuries and is in excellent form: Won Nautica South Beach, won Monterrey ITU World Cup, won Cap Tex Triathloon, won Life Time Fitness Minneappolis. Has cut back on ITU WCS races, presumably because she wants to be fresh for London. Was 3rd American and 15th at Kitzbuhel.
Sarah Groff, 29, Hanover, New Hampshire
Groff has been the second most consistent American woman in recent WCS races, logging a 19th, 7th, 8th and 10th in 2010. This year Groff posted top American results at all thee of her WCS races – a 7th at Madrid, a breakthrough 3rd at Kitzbuhel – the very first WCS podium for an American woman since the advent of the WCS in 2009 – and a recovery week 13th in Hamburg. If the glitter of Bennett’s and Haskins’ career records doesn’t distract, a fine case can be made for Groff taking that first 2012 US women’s Olympic slot.
Jillian Peterson, 28, Colorado Springs, Colorado
Still on the rise. Raced well to get to the London start line. Her 2010 WCS record included 26th at Sydney, 15th at Seoul, 39th at Madrid, 39th at Hamburg, 32nd at Budapest Grand Final. This year Peterson scored a 20th at Sydney, 39th at Madrid and 35th at Kitzbuhel. Also posted a win at Miami International and 7th at Ishigaki ITU World Cup. Excellent swim and bike, but needs to cut two minutes off her 36 to 38-minute 10ks.
Gwen Jorgenson, 25, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
One of fastest improving USA elite women in draft-legal, ITU format racing. In 2010, led the U.S. with a 2nd at PATCO Pan American Championship, 5th at Huatulco ITU World Cup, 5th at USA Triathlon Elite National Championship, 13th at ITU Duathlon World Championships, 3rd at San Francisco ITU Pan American Cup. This year Jorgenson scored 5th at Monterrey ITU World Cup, 16th at Mooloolaba ITU World Cup, and 5th at Mazatlan ITU Pan American Cup and DNF’d at her WCS debut in Madrid. One to watch in the future.
