Only two finishers from Kona will be competing this weekend at the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championships. One of them, Kelly Fillnow, finished 25th. The other is the defending 70.3 World Champion.

The biggest weather factor coming into the weekend appears to be morning temperatures. With forecast lows in the upper 30s but temperatures expected to rise into the mid 70s throughout the morning, thermal regulation is going to be a critical factor in who can take this final crown of 2022.

Podium Favorites

Lucy Charles-Barclay
The defending 70.3 World Champion, Charles-Barclay has also finished runner-up four straight times at Kona [2017, 2018, 2019, 2022]. She lost the first eight months of 2022 to the long recovery time from a hip stress fracture. But since then Charles-Barclay came on strong with her first World Title at the 2022 World Triathlon Long Distance World Championships, a bronze finish at the inaugural PTO US Open, and of course her fourth straight second place finish at the IRONMAN World Championships.

Her performance in Kona is indicative of how you would expect her to race in St. George — get to the front of the swim and try to win from the front. Managing to hold off Anne Haug on the run in Kona showcased her grit, but it could also be the mileage in the legs that becomes a liability late in the day on Friday. But the smart money has to start here.

Taylor Knibb
Knibb poses a big threat to Charles-Barclay as Knibb can match LCB in the swim and posted a race-best 1:17:47 run at this year’s Ironman 70.3 Oceanside. Taking away Charles-Barclay’s ace in the hole swim, Knibb averages a similar bike split to the Brit, and outpaces on the run makes Knibb the winner on paper.  
 
Knibb’s career highlights include: a silver in the Olympic mixed relay, a win at 2021 WTCS Yokohama, a 3rd place at the 2021 Ironman 70.3 World Championship in St. George, a runaway win at the 2021 World Triathlon Grand Final in Edmonton and a win at the 2022 70.3 season opener at Oceanside. Sidelined for most of the summer, Knibb rebounded recently with a 2nd place finish at the PTO US Open that featured a two minute faster bike split than anyone else in the field.

She’s also showcased recent speed, taking third at the World Triathlon Championship Series Cagliari event. Her worst finish in an individual race in the last two years was 16th at the Olympic Games; everywhere else is no worse than 6th. If she’s healthy, she’s on the podium. It’s a matter of what step.
 
Emma Pallant-Browne
Pallant-Browne is another top competitor coming in without having an IRONMAN in their legs this month. She’s also arguably the freshest of top competitors having not raced since the end of August. This year alone, Pallant-Browne has raced nine times. She’s won five times, finished second twice, and didn’t finish twice. All five of those wins were at 70.3 and equivalent distances. She’s the most consistent competitor at this distance here.

Pallant-Browne’s also had success on this course, finishing third at the 2021 70.3 St. George race and fifth at the World Championships held here. Do not be surprised to see Pallant-Browne contending for the win.

Flora Duffy
The first woman to have won an Olympic and World title in the same year, and the first ever Bermudian Olympic gold medalist. She’s an eleven-time World Champion across three different disciplines. What can’t she do?
 
Unbelievably, this is Duffy’s debut at the 70.3 World Championships. Her results at this distance are more mixed. She won 70.3 South Africa in 2020, but did not compete at this distance again until this summer’s Collins Cup. Her overall time of 3:35:47 put her 9th overall. Duffy also finished sixth at the US Open, fading in the sweltering heat. That said, with more favorable conditions, Duffy should be able to combine for a lead chase pack swim, a more than capable bike, and then unleash one of the faster runs in the sport.

Outside Candidates

Holly Lawrence
It feels odd to put the 10th ranked non-draft athlete in the world in this section. That said, Lawrence also has not won a race in 16 months — June 20th, 2021 in Des Moines. In between there have been multiple DNFs, a single second, and two third place finishes.

That being said, the former 70.3 World Champion has also taken victory here in St. George before and also holds one of the crazier statistics in IRONMAN 70.3 events — from May 7, 2016 until May 1, 2021, if Lawrence finished an IRONMAN 70.3 race ,she finished on the podium. She just missed the podium at the US Open. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see her make the leap back up here.

Paula Findlay
Findlay’s last outside the top 10 finish at a race she completed was 13th at 70.3 Worlds in 2019. She took a definitive second at the inaugural PTO Canadian Open in front of a hometown crowd, only being nipped to the line by Ashleigh Gentle. She also took a match win at the Collins Cup — her first race victory since October 2021’s 70.3 California.

Findlay has had consistent success in St. George, with a win in 2018, a second in 2019, and a fourth in 2021. She’ll be around the front, but is on the outside looking in when it comes to cracking the podium.

Ellie Salthouse
Salthouse has had a middling 2022, with race finishes no better than 8th all year. Coming off the back of a 2021 that featured 7 wins in 9 races, it can only be described as a disappointment.

That said, Salthouse also is an athlete who finished 14th at the 70.3 World Championships in one weekend, then reeled off two wins on consecutive weekends immediately following. That athlete is still in there.
 
Jackie Hering
Hering started off 2022 with a bang, taking fifth at Oceanside and then the win at 70.3 Chattanooga. Since then, though, it’s been a bit off form, with outside the top 10 finishes at both PTO Open events. That said, this pattern also looks similar to her 2021, where she had a less than stellar run of events before a second in Memphis and then the win at CLASH Daytona. She’s also consistently finished in the Top 10 here in St. George. It would be a mistake to discount her.

Tamara Jewett
One of the fastest runners in the field, Jewett is coming off of illness at both PTO World Tour races. Her swim is the liability here. If she can manage to keep herself closer to the front, she’s got a chance to improve upon last year’s 13th place finish.

Barbara Riveros
A four-time Olympian, Riveros had a hot 2022 – she took 1sts at Embrun, Alpe d’Huez Triathlon and Pays d’Aix 70.3. Like Duffy, this is her 70.3 Worlds debut, but has more experience at the longer distance than her WTCS rival.

Podium Picks

Timothy Carlson
1. Flora Duffy
2. Lucy Charles-Barclay
3. Taylor Knibb

Ryan Heisler
1. Taylor Knibb
2. Emma Pallant-Brown
3. Paula Findlay

Start List

1 Lucy Charles-Barclay
2 Taylor Knibb
4 Emma Pallant-Brown
6 Jackie Hering
7 Holly Lawrence
8 Nikki Bartlett
9 Anne Reischmann
10 Flora Duffy
14 Paula Findlay
17 Tamara Jewett
19 Ellie Salthouse
21 Lydia Dant
22 Imogen Simmonds
23 Danielle Lewis
24 Lotte Wilms
25 Barbara Riveros
26 Manon Genet
27 India Lee
28 Marjolaine Pierre
29 Grace Thek
30 Lesley Smith
31 Aleksandra Jedrzejewska
33 Kelly Fillnow
34 Alexia Bailly
35 Charlene Clavel
36 Natia Van Heerden
37 Dimity-Lee Duke
38 Justine Guerard
39 Amy Cymerman
40 Sonja Catano
42 Ali Brauer
43 Giorgia Priarone
44 Diede Diederiks
45 Grace Alexander
46 Daniela Kleiser
48 Katharina Kruger
49 Sarah Bishop
50 Romina Palacio
52 Julie Iemmolo
53 Olivia Mitchell
54 Mariella Sawyer
55 Eloise Du Luarte
56 Pamela-Ann Bachelder St Pierre
57 Stephanie Demestichas
58 Paulina Kotfica
59 Palmira Alvarez
61 Lottie Lucas
63 Rachel Olson
64 Tiina Pohjalainen
65 Frankie Sanjana