The 2010 USA Triathlon Collegiate Nationals at Lubbock, Texas promises red-hot competition despite another predicted cold day like the frigid 2009 contest in West Texas. This year 9 AM swim start temperatures are predicted to be around 50 degrees and water temperatures not much higher.
Once again the field is a near sellout with 900 individual competitors representing more than 100 college clubs hitting the first of seven waves in the Olympic distance main event at 9 AM.
Leading this year’s field are the top three women from the 2009 USAT Collegiate Nationals podium – defending champion Jessica Broderick of CU Boulder, runner-up Ashley Morgan of the US Military Academy, and Julie Rechel of the University of Richmond. While the top two finishers from the 2009 Collegiate Nationals men’s race – winner John Dahlz of UC Berkeley and runner-up Derek Oskutis of the US Naval Academy -- have moved on, expect a tight battle between 2009 third place finisher Cedric Wane of CU Boulder and last year’s 5th place finisher Kenneth Rakestraw of UC Berkeley.
Once again, the collegiate nationals remain hard to predict, since collegiate competition is spread around several regional conferences and similarly scattered events, USAT age group nationals, ITU age group and Under 23 worlds, and various events ranging from sprints to the 70.3 distance. In addition, the USAT Collegiate Nationals include grad students in the club team format. Adding to the mix are many top NCAA Division 1 single sport athletes from swimming, track and cross country who become burned out midway through their college careers and are capable of making meteoric rises from dark horse beginners to medal contenders.
And, as a final caveat to anyone taking this humble attempt at prognostication seriously, please note that at the time of publication online, there was no final entry list available on the USAT website. Long shots left out of this list can take any unintended snub as inspiration. You can expect several prominent favorites to no-show due to injury.
The Men
1. Cedric Wane, CU Boulder. Finished 13th in 2007 and 20th in 2008 before posting a strong, 29-seconds-behind-the-winner third place finish last year in 2:01:42 on the cold, tough Lubbock course. Since then Wane has stayed near the top of the heap in competition and should win – if he’s healthy and on form. But before betting the house, remember unspectacular 2007 and 2008 finishes.
2. Kenneth Rakestraw, UC Berkeley Long tall drink of water finished 5th last year, 75 seconds behind overall winner and teammate John Dahlz in an impressive time of 2:02:28. A month later, Rakestraw finished second, 2:25 behind grad student, now turned pro Kyle Leto for the overall at collegiate-heavy Wildflower Olympic distance. Rakestraw is winning college conference races left and right and should have the incentive to emerge from perpetual runner-up status into the spotlight.
3. Chris Stehula, Cal Poly SLO Did not appear in the results at Lubbock last year, but won a Southwest Collegiate Regional in a very swift time of 1:57 last month and has the chops to medal here.
4. Rudy Kahsar, University of Virginia Kahsar scored 6th at Lubbock last year in 2:06:08 -- better last year than all but the top three picks above.
5. Scott Terry, US Naval Academy OK. OK. He finished 13th last year in 2:07:59, 3rd best on the US Navy men’s team and six minutes back of top Midshipman Derek Oskutis. What the record does not show is that Terry’s bike helmet was mysteriously missing when he came in from the swim close to the lead. Terry lost an estimated 3 minutes before someone provided him a substitute helmet – and Navy then lost the men’s team title to UC Berkeley by one point. Terry will have a spotter with an eye on his helmet this year and is in excellent form, ready to go fast and redeem last’s year’s men's team loss.
6. Matt Inch, Michigan State Veteran MSU tri-competitor scored 12th last year in 2:07:56.
7. Alex Dean, University of Wisconsin Was 14th in 2009 in 2:08:15, up from 27th in 2008.
8. Patrick Davis, Iowa State Finished 15th in Collegiate Nationals in 2008 clocking 2:01:25, fell to 25th last year at much tougher course in Lubbock. But when weather was right took 2nd in 20-24 age group category at the 2008 USAT Nationals in 1:59:05.
9. Dustin McLarty Is this U23 tri-star on USAT Development Team on the entry list? Brother of pro Sara McLarty, Dustin was an NCAA swimmer at University of Florida. Now he’s a grad student competing occasionally for UC Irvine triathlon team this spring in California collegiate races.
The women
1. Jessica Broderick, CU Boulder It’s hard to pick against the defending champ who won 2009 as a freshman in 2:18:35. A big day clutch hitter, Broderick placed 3rd at the 2008 ITU World Championship in 18-19 in ve-ry cold water at Vancouver, a good sign she won’t shiver away her best game in Lubbock’s anticipated cold weather/cold water combo.
2. Ashley Morgan, US Military Academy This West Point senior who placed second to the CU freshman last year would make a very good bet to turn the tables on Broderick. Why? Last year Morgan competed in Lubbock after a half-year bout with plantar fasciitis that left her water running for prep. West Point’s top cross country runner is healthy now and coming off a win in her 20-24 age group at the Ironman 70.3 World Championship last November and a 10th place finish against the pros at Miami International in March. Also, she’s a hero. She qualified for the Army’s World Class Athlete Program but will pass it up to go on active duty upon graduation.
3. Julie Rechel, University of Richmond In 2008, Rechel, the Richmond Spiders’ top cross country runner, beat 2008 Collegiate Nationals runner-up Leah Larson and won the USAT 2012 Talent ID race after nationals. Last year her 2:20:00 finish was 1:25 back of the win. Fast improving her swim and bike, she should be closer this year.
4. Darlene Hunt, UC San Diego Hunt took 4th at Lubbock last year in 2:20:49 and led UCSD to the women’s team victory.
5. Brittany Day, UCLA Finished 2009 Lubbock in 2:22:03.
6. Erika Erickson, Cal Berkeley Not in the 2009 Collegiate Nationals results. But she won a highly competitive spring UCSB conference race.
7. Kathrine Warren, UCSB Finished 5th undergrad at 2009 Lubbock Collegiate Nationals in 2:22:40.
8. Lauren Capone, UCSB finished 2009 Collegiate Nationals in 2:23:12 and won a recent Cal Poly SLO-hosted conference clash in a swift 2:15:36.
9. Lexa Gass, US Naval Academy Top Annapolis women’s star with a 7th place finish at 2009 Lubbock in 2:24:59. Her picture is on the Navy Women’s Cross Country media guide and can motor if close after the bike.
10. Lisa Fong, UCSD Finished 24th at Collegiate Nationals last year, but coming on strong with 2:19:57 clocking at Cal Poly conference tri last month.
11. Allison Johnston, UCSD Finished 14th in 2:28:41 at Lubbock last year as part of the women’s national championship team.
Teams
Very tough to figure out counting top four places.
Women
Will CU’s one-two-three punch of Jessica Broderick and Ashley Walker (she won at Lake Havasu last month in a swift 2:17:29) plus fast-improving Tess Amer be enough to counter the 2009 Lubbock returning firepower of UCSD’s Darlene Hunt (4th), Allison Johnston (14th) Sarah Kavaler (18th) and Lisa Fong (24th)? Or will UCSB’s killer duo of Kathrine Warren (5th in 2009) and Lauren (no relation to Al) Capone prevail?
It says here:
1. UCSD
2. CU Boulder
3. UCSB
Men
There are individual stars but no one obvious powerhouse team. Tossing the proverbial coin:
1. CU Boulder
2. UC Berkeley
3. US Naval Academy
