After stints at Wildflower, Reno, and Tuscaloosa, the 2009 USA Triathlon Collegiate Nationals have moved to the rugged West Texas home of non-triathlon power Texas Tech. But the Lubbock of April is far from the microwave hot weather of Buffalo Springs Lake in June. If setting the date on the eve of the anniversaries of Hitler’s birthday and the Columbine massacre wasn't bad enough, the water in the lake is 57 degrees, the air temps are in the mid 50s, it’s rainy and the winds are definitely whistling on the plains, making Lubbock’s hilly bike route even tougher than usual.
While the USA Triathlon Collegiate Nationals remain the Holy Grail for the growing number of club squads, the prestige remains just this side of NCAA Division I thanks to participation by roughly 100 schools and approximately 1000 athletes.
After combined wins by the Naval Academy in 2007 and UC Berkeley in 2008, this year’s team contests appear to be a duel between heavy favorite UC Berkeley versus the upstart West Point team in the men’s and a wide open duel between West Point, UC Berkeley, UC San Diego and CU Boulder for the women’s team crown.
While little known dark horse prodigies surely lie in wait, here is this prognosticator’s humble attempt to establish the chalk for this clash of the scholar-triathletes.
The men
1. Derek Oskutis, US Naval Academy, has the best career record
In 2007, Oskutis was the top Naval Academy finisher on their USA Triathlon Collegiate Nationals winning men’s team. Oskutis swam 17:46 biked 58:25 and ran 35:21 posting a 1:53:46 for 6th place overall. Last year Oskutis finished 4th overall in 1:56:25 with an 18:57 swim, 1:00:01 bike and 35:46 run. Last September, he was 19th at the 2008 USAT Elite Nationals. Recent form has him peaking with an overall win at the Lone Star Triathlon.
2. John Dahlz, UC Berkeley. Solid second pick
The 5-10, 155 pound senior in political science finished 10th last year at the USAT Collegiate Nationals in 1:59:19, with an 18:14 swim, 1:01:42 bike and a 38:16 run, the second man on UC Berkeley’s winning team behind overall winner Steve Sexton. At the 2008 USAT Elite Nationals, Dahlz finished 16th in 1:59:46, in a slower time than UC Berkeley teammate Kenneth Rakestraw, who finished 3rd in the 20-24 age group. But Dahlz finished ahead of Navy’s Derek Oskutis (19th) and Army’s Nicholas Vandam (25th) at Hagg Lake. Dahlz’s recent form is good – he won the Golden Bear Triathlon overall last month.
3. Nicholas Vandam, US Military Academy. Coming on strong in 2009, Vandam beat Oskutis last month in Florida.
Coming on fast, Vandam dueled with Oskutis until he used his much improved run to pull away from his Navy rival last month at the Wildman Triathlon in central Florida. In 2007, Vandam, a former Army Division I swimmer, finished 14th overall in 1:57:36 at USAT Collegiate Nationals. Vandam swam 17:06, biked 1:00:39 and ran 37:33. In 2008 at Collegiate Nationals, Vandam scored 10th overall in 1:59:33, despite an atrocious (for him) 19:41 swim. His 1:00:51 was par for the bike leaders, and his 36:54 run was an improvement.
4. Kenneth Rakestraw, UC Berkeley. Not a chance for overall, but as the best second banana, will deliver UC Berkeley’s second straight men’s team title.
Last year Rakestraw was the third and final scoring triathlete for UC Berkeley at Collegiate Nationals, taking 17th overall. That day in Tuscaloosa, he swam 21:26, biked 1:01:46 and ran 35:36. His 2:01:13 overall time put him behind Oskutis and Nicholas Vandam and ahead of 2009’s top up and comers -- Iowa State’s Patrick Davis and CU Boulder’s Cedric Wane. At the 2008 USAT Elite Nationals, Rakestraw’s 1:59:18 put him 3rd in the 20-24 age group. This year, Rakestraw won the West Coast Conference overall in 1:57:37.
5. Patrick Davis, Iowa State. Should lead deep Iowa State team.
Last year Davis finished 15th overall at USAT Collegiate Nationals in Tuscaloosa. Posting 2:01:25 with a 21:26 swim, 58:41 bike and 37:24 run. Also in 2008, Davis placed second in the 20-24 division at the USAT age group nationals with a 1:59:05 clocking.
6. Cedric Wane, CU Boulder. As a team, the Buffaloes have fallen from their once prominent top perch, but Wane is a possible top 5.
In 2007, he finished 23rd at Collegiate Nationals in 1:59:29 with a 20:31 swim, 59:42 bike and 36:59 run. Last year at Collegiate Nationals, he swam 21:13, biked 1:01:19 and ran 36:57 for a 2:01:29 finish in 20th place.
The women
1. West Point’s Ashley Morgan is the favorite – with a big if.
Ashley Morgan, a junior and the Academy’s top track and cross country runner, finished 4th last year behind Amanda Felder of UC San Diego, Leah Larson of CU Boulder and Chris Tommerdahl of North Carolina at Chapel Hill – all of whom are not returning. Working hard, Morgan has improved on last year’s rock-like 25:36 swim to near 22 flat, stayed the same or better than her 1:05:57 bike which was just 57 seconds slower than overall winner Felder. And Morgan’s run, 37 seconds faster than Felder’s, should theoretically be two minutes faster than her 39:01 mark last year. If she hits her theoretical best, Morgan should be out of sight. The big if is a stubborn painful case of plantar fasciitis which has hung around since an ill-fated 17-mile training march through steep hills and thick underbrush last October. Since then, Morgan has worked like a dervish on the stationary bike, swum hard in the pool, and done a ton of pool running. Just two weeks ago, Morgan ran for the first time in six months and set a personal best in a two-mile time trial.
2. Florida Gator Alexandra Lechner
Lechner finished 8th undergraduate last year at USAT Collegiate Nationals in 2:18:32 with a 21:21 swim 1:12:32 bike and 42:42 run. Compare her splits to Morgan’s – even factoring in inevitable improvement -- and you can see why Morgan remains the big favorite.
3. UC San Diego’s Lauren Chiodini
Chiodini finished 13th undergraduate at Collegiate Nationals last year in 2:20:17. But her second place in the 20-24 women at USAT age group nationals in 2:17:24 indicates she is moving up.
4. Jessica Broderick, CU Boulder
With no Collegiate Nationals record, Broderick moved up in class with a bronze medal at ITU age group worlds in W18-19, in the same time as long time 40-44 star Linda Robb.
5. Lauren Capone of UC Santa Barbara
Is NOT related to famed 1930s Chicago mobster Al Capone, but she does have the competitive guts of a burglar after a 10th place finish in 2:19:21 last year at Collegiate Nationals.
6. Rebecca Kurtz, Colorado State University
Is not related to novelist Joseph Conrad’s and film director Francis Ford Coppola’s tortured fictional protagonist Mistah/Colonel Kurtz. But she has improved on last year’s 14th place undergraduate finish at Collegiate Nationals and will rely on her swift bike (1:09:55 last year at Tuscaloosa) to crack the top 10.
7. Robyn Shaffer UC Berkeley
Shaffer finished 16th in 2:22:04 last year at Collegiate Nationals. But if she stays free of the 2 minute penalty that dogged her last year, she could easily crack the top 10.
8. Lexa Gass, US Naval Academy
Gass did not compete at Collegiate Nationals last year. But as the number one seed of the team that won the 2007 Collegiate National title, she very likely has the speed to crack the top 5.
9. Randy Wintermantel, US Military Academy
Last year at Collegiate Nationals, Wintermantel earned the Manatee Award for her glacial 31:05 swim. Then her third-best 1:05:57 bike and top 10, 39:11 run moved her up to 19th undergraduate. Wintermantel, a last second transfer from the varsity soccer squad, had a good excuse last year. This year her swim is in the 26-minute range, she might just post the fastest bike, and should be right on the heels of teammate Morgan’s run. Sure thing top 10 finish, which could provide the West Point women with a surprise team win – if Kari Vahle can transfer more of her swim power to her run.
